• 16 OCT
  • Knight Snippet
  • 16/10/2020

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,

This is your host Priyancka Mahore, AVP  of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.

Here is all what you need to know before going into trade for 16-Oct-2020.

International Market:
- Paris and London have both instituted limits to social activity in a bid to contain the spread of the coronavirus

- In U.S. economic data, weekly jobless claims data climbed 53,000 to 8.98 Lakhs, the highest level since Aug. 22.

- Rising global infection rates, a setback in vaccine trails and anxiety over election outcomes: These 3 reasons will continue to keep both equities and debt markets volatile

- US 10-year closed at 0.74% and 30-year at 1.52%

- German 10-year at -0.59%, the lowest since mid-March due to uncertainity on US fiscal stimulus, and rising COVID-19 cases in Europe

Crude Oil Market:
- OPEC+ reassured the market yesterday that, they will let oil market to crash again

- Member nations were also hopeful to increase the production in oil from January as it was decided early even though COVID-19 continues to rattle to economies

- Brent crude is trading at $42.95/bbl

- Long Term View: $50/bbl in next 6 months

Currency Market:
- Dollar Index (DXY) at 93.78

- Did you notice that, our yesterday's upper trading range was 93.85 and DXY closed at 93.86?

- Again, this is not a bright guess. It is actually the mathematical models working behind to predict as accurately as possible

- The RISK_OFF approach is helping the US dollar and  

- Dollar Index Range: 93.57 - 94.20

- USDINR with a high of 73.47, closed at 73.43 on Thursday

- Point to note is: USDINR has not breached 73.50 even-on intra-day basis yet for the last few weeks, which may happen today

- USDINR Range: 73.20 - 73.55

- All of our clients are minting money in USDINR pair due to its strict range-bound movements and it has become heaven for currency traders for now

Domestic Market:
- The central Govt revised its borrowing plan

- Initially center had planned to borrow 4.34 Lakh Cr in H2, but now it has been revised upwards to 4.88 Lakh Cr

- The additional borrowing will be to compensate states for the GST CESS shortfall

- The additional borrowing will come in 3 and 5 year maturities

- Hence, we will see an uptick in yields 3-5 year maturities due to Rs. 55,000 Cr additional supply

- But, as RBI has promised to keep the liquidity in check and heavy OMOs to address these concerns, we do not worry much on 3-5 year maturities

 15-Oct-2020 - Rs. 20,000 Cr OMO analysis:

- The meaningful observation was 5.79 GS 2030 cut-off was at 5.86 or 99.48 with Rs. 3,475 Cr purchases

- The quantum in 10-year maturity was less than anticipated

- The cut-off was also as per our yesterday's prediction of 5.86 and there was not much cheer as RBI was not so aggressive and sent a signal that they are comfortable with current rates

- RBI is trying hard to shape up the yield curve with large purchases in 2026-2027 maturities which was seen yesterday's OMO as well

Today, there will be a G-sec auction and we will be available again with cut-off ranges by 10.30am

If you haven't subscribed to our trading services or auction services, you can reach out to us on 9503145573 or research@knightfitnech.com

That's it for today.  You were listening to Knight Snippets with Priyancka Mahore, AVP of Knight Fintech.

See you next week with the new episode of Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
PPI MoM SEP   [US] 652.1 658.8 12/10/20 16/10/20
Industrial Production MoM SEP   [US] 3.50 0.40 12/10/20 16/10/20
Deposit Growth YoY   [IN] 12.0 10.5 19/10/20 23/10/20
Inflation Rate MoM SEP   [JP] 0.20 -0.10 19/10/20 23/10/20
Balance Of Trade SEP   [SG] 3,211 5,832 12/10/20 16/10/20
Unemployment Rate SEP   [CN] 5.70 5.60 16/10/20 19/10/20
Retail Sales ex Fuel MOM SEP   [GB] 2.10 0.60 19/10/20 23/10/20
Industrial Production YoY SEP   [US] -7.40 0.00 15/10/20 15/10/20
PPI Input MoM SEP   [GB] -0.40 -0.50 16/10/20 21/10/20
Core Inflation Rate YoY SEP   [JP] 0.0000 -0.4000 19/10/20 22/10/20
Industrial Production YoY SEP   [CN] 4.80 5.60 16/10/20 19/10/20
Existing Home Sales SEP   [US] 5,860 6,000 19/10/20 22/10/20
Industrial Trends Order OCT   [GB] -44.0 -48.0 19/10/20 22/10/20
Retail Sales YoY SEP   [RU] -2.60 -2.70 16/10/20 20/10/20
Housing Starts SEP   [US] 1,492 1,416 16/10/20 20/10/20
Continuing Jobless Claims   [US] 11,183 10,018 19/10/20 22/10/20
Bank Lending YoY   [IN] 5.30 5.10 19/10/20 23/10/20
GDP Growth Rate QoQ   [CN] -10.00 11.50 16/10/20 19/10/20
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 845.0 898.0 19/10/20 22/10/20
PPI Output YoY SEP   [GB] -0.90 -0.90 16/10/20 21/10/20
Retail Sales MoM SEP   [US] 0.90 0.60 12/10/20 16/10/20
Inflation Rate MoM SEP   [CN] 0.60 0.40 09/10/20 15/10/20
Core Inflation Rate MoM SEP   [GB] 109.7 109.0 16/10/20 21/10/20
Housing Price Index YoY SEP   [CN] 4.80 4.80 16/10/20 20/10/20
Stock Investment by Foreigners   [JP] 531.4 1,421.0 19/10/20 22/10/20
Jobless Claims 4 Week Average   [US] 858.3 866.3 19/10/20 22/10/20
PPI YoY SEP   [RU] -2.20 -0.80 12/10/20 16/10/20
Manufacturing Production YoY AUG   [US] -7.30 -6.90 12/10/20 16/10/20
Retail Sales YoY gb   [GB] 1.40 2.80 19/10/20 23/10/20
Industrial Production YoY SEP   [US] 0.0000 0.0000 15/10/20 15/10/20
Foreign Bond Investment AUG   [US] -27,719 -22,800 16/10/20 17/10/20
Retail Sales MoM SEP   [GB] 3.70 0.80 19/10/20 23/10/20
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [IN] 545,638 551,505 19/10/20 23/10/20
Retail Sales YoY SEP   [CN] -1.10 0.50 16/10/20 19/10/20
Export Final SEP   [IN] 22,700 27,400 09/10/20 15/10/20
Manufacturing Production YoY SEP   [US] -7.30 -6.90 12/10/20 16/10/20
Industrial Production YoY SEP   [US] -7.40 -7.70 12/10/20 16/10/20
FDI (YTD) YoY SEP   [CN] 769.8 890.0 16/10/20 19/10/20
Imports Final SEP   [IN] 29,470 30,310 09/10/20 15/10/20
Unemployment Rate SEP   [RU] 6.30 6.40 16/10/20 20/10/20
PPI Core Output MoM SEP   [GB] 114.7 114.8 16/10/20 21/10/20
Retail Sales ex Fuel YOY SEP   [GB] 2.10 0.60 19/10/20 23/10/20
Inflation Rate YoY SEP   [CN] 2.70 2.40 09/10/20 15/10/20
Retail Price Index YoY SEP   [GB] 1.60 0.50 16/10/20 21/10/20
Inflation Rate YoY SEP   [JP] 0.30 0.20 19/10/20 23/10/20
GDP Growth Rate YoY   [CN] -6.80 3.20 16/10/20 19/10/20
Retail Sales YoY SEP   [US] 2.40 2.60 12/10/20 16/10/20
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [IN] 542,021 546 12/10/20 16/10/20
Inflation Rate MoM SEP   [GB] 0.40 -0.40 16/10/20 21/10/20
Balance Of Trade SEP   [JP] 10.9 248.3 16/10/20 19/10/20
PPI Core Output YoY SEP   [GB] 114.7 114.8 16/10/20 21/10/20
Balance Of Trade Final SEP   [IN] -6,770 -2,900 09/10/20 15/10/20
Core Inflation Rate YoY SEP   [GB] 1.00 0.20 16/10/20 21/10/20
Exports SEP   [JP] 5,369 5,233 16/10/20 19/10/20
Public Sector Net Borrowing SEP   [GB] -15,441 -35,920 16/10/20 21/10/20
Loan Prime Rate 1Y   [CN] 3.85 3.85 16/10/20 20/10/20
PPI Output MoM SEP   [GB] 115.1 115.1 16/10/20 21/10/20
GDP YoY SEP   [RU] -4.60 -4.30 16/10/20 20/10/20
Business Investment MoM   [US] -1.10 0.10 12/10/20 16/10/20
Retail Price Index MoM SEP   [GB] 1.60 0.50 16/10/20 21/10/20
Import YoY SEPJ   [JP] 5,357 4,984 16/10/20 19/10/20
Existing Home Sales MoM SEP   [US] 5,860 6,000 19/10/20 22/10/20
Capacity Utilization SEP   [US] 71.1 71.4 12/10/20 16/10/20

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
5.22% GS 2025 5 Y 12000 99.98 - 100.00 23/10/20 13:45 100.10 12000 Price 19/10/20 23/10/20 26/10/20
7.16% GS 2050 30 Y 8000 6.79% - 6.80% 23/10/20 13:38 104.70 6000 Price 12/10/20 16/10/20 19/10/20
6.95% PNSDL 2040 20 Y 500 6.88% - 6.90% 20/10/20 15:11 100.53 485 Price 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
5.27% BRSDL 2024 4 Y 2000 5.25% - 5.30% 20/10/20 15:11 5.27% 2000 Yield 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
6.62% KASDL 2032 12 Y 1000 6.60% - 6.63% 20/10/20 15:10 6.62% 1000 Yield 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
5.09% GS 2022 2 Y 3000 - 23/10/20 13:45 101.69 3000 Price 19/10/20 23/10/20 26/10/20
91 DTB 21/01/2021 91 D 9000 3.20% - 3..22% 21/10/20 15:01 3.2115% 9000 Yield 16/10/20 21/10/20 22/10/20
364 DTB 21/10/2021 364 D 4000 3.45% - 3..48% 21/10/20 14:59 3.4595% 4000 Yield 16/10/20 21/10/20 22/10/20
6.62% JHSDL 2030 10 Y 1000 6.60% - 6.63% 20/10/20 15:30 6.62% 1400 Yield 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
182 DTB 22/04/2021 182 D 3000 3.36% - 3..38% 21/10/20 14:57 3.3501% 3000 Yield 16/10/20 21/10/20 22/10/20
6.56% MHSDL 2030 10 Y 1000 6.60% - 6.63% 20/10/20 15:29 6..56% 1500 Yield 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
6.56% ASSDL 2030 10 Y 500 6.60% - 6.63% 20/10/20 15:01 6.56% 500 Yield 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
6.54% UPSDL 2030 10 Y 2000 6.60% - 6.63% 20/10/20 15:06 6.54% 2000 Yield 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
6.87% APSDL 2035 15 Y 1000 - 20/10/20 15:08 6.87% 1000 Yield 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
5.22% GS 2025 5 Y 8000 99.69 - 99.71 23/10/20 13:39 99.70 8000 Price 12/10/20 16/10/20 19/10/20
6.47% MHSDL 2028 8 Y 1000 6.52% - 6.53% 20/10/20 15:03 6.47% 1500 Yield 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
5.24% ASSDL 2024 4 Y 500 5.25% - 5.30% 20/10/20 15:00 5.24% 500 Yield 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
6.51% KASDL 2030 10 Y 1000 6.60% - 6.63% 20/10/20 15:34 6.51% 1000 Yield 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
4.54% TNSDL 2023 3 Y 1000 - 20/10/20 15:07 99.46 1000 Price 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20
6.19% GS 2034 14 Y 12000 99.02-99.05 23/10/20 13:40 99.05 14000 Price 12/10/20 16/10/20 19/10/20
6.80% GS 2060 40 Y 7000 6.77% - 6.79% 23/10/20 13:46 6.78% 7000 Price 19/10/20 23/10/20 26/10/20
5.77% GS 2030 10 Y 9000 99.00 - 99.05 23/10/20 13:47 99.03 9000 Price 19/10/20 23/10/20 26/10/20
6.89% MPSDL 2040 20 Y 1000 6.88% - 6.90% 20/10/20 15:02 6.89% 1000 Yield 15/10/20 20/10/20 21/10/20

Credit Research: Exposures and Next IP Dates

Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd.

Non Convertible Debenture

SBI Cards & Payments Services Ltd.

Debenture

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