• 19 NOV
  • Knight Snippet
  • 19/11/2020

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,

This is your host Parthesh Shah, Co-Founder of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.

Here is all what you need to know before going into trade for 19-Nov-2020.

International Market:
- Pfizer, the leading coronavirus vaccine drug-maker said that final results from the late-stage trial of its COVID-19 vaccine show it was 95%

effective, adding that it had the required two months of safety data and would apply for emergency U.S. authorization within days

- On one hand, US is recording 1.6 Lakh new cases every day for the last 7 days and on the other hand, COVID-19 vaccine hope is increasing day-by-day

- With vaccine in sight, US 10-year benchmark closed at 0.88%, just 1 bps up from previous day

Crude Oil Market:
- Yesterday, API had reported a 4.17 mn bbl crude oil inventory build after which crude's rally has stalled

- Crude is now trading at $43.97/bbl

- Crude short term range: $42-$45

- We have been vocal on the bullish crude trade with $50/bbl target by Jan-2021 and few of our clients are holding LONG crude from recent $37/bbl

Currency Market:
- Dollar index (DXY) is at: 92.50;  

- DXY today's range: 92.10 - 92.79

- A close below 92.10 will take DXY at 52-week low levels of 91.74, and we at Knight Research believe that it is just a matter of time when DXY will be at 52-week low again

- USDCNY or Chinese yuan is at 6.57; almost no change  

- USDINR with a low of 74.11 closed at 74.18 yesterday

- USDINR Range for today: 74.00 - 74.30

- As we had mentioned, USDINR now has closed below 74.50 and 74.30 consecutively. But, we feel 74 psychological level is not so easy to breach and RBI may intervene anytime soon

- Rather, the prudent strategy for today would be to go LONG near 74.02 for quick 20 paisa as we expect USDINR to close above 74.30 mostly today

- Of course, do not forget to check with us as markets are dynamic and we have to make instantaneous decision

Domestic Market:
- Domestic markets were range bound yesterday

- 5.22 GS 2025 made a high of 100.65 or 5.05% yields and closed at 5.09%

- Similarly, 5.77 GS 2030 made a high of 99.38 or 5.85% yields and closed at 5.87%

- Private sector banks were seen buying again yesterday

- 5.22 GS 2025 has rallied because of today's OMOs

- Knight Research will be available with OMO cut-off expectations by 10.30am

Watch Out:
- Diwali season has gone and Delhi is already struggling with COVID-19 second wave

- If this situation happens in majority of the country again, and partial lock-downs have to be implemented, this will weaken the bond yields and yields can come back to 5.80 levels depending on the COVID-19 scenario in India  

- Our research team is keeping an eye on the COVID-19 numbers in India and will make sure to update you in timely fashion

That's it for today.  You were listening to Knight Snippets with Parthesh Shah from Knight Fintech.

See you tomorrow with the new episode of Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
GDP Price Index QoQ Final Q3   [SG] -13.2 7.9 21/11/20 23/11/20
Unemployment Rate OCT   [AU] 6.90 7.00 16/11/20 19/11/20
New Home Sales MoM   [US] 994.0 959.0 21/11/20 25/11/20
Deposit Growth YoY   [IN] 10.5 10.1 16/11/20 20/11/20
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 711.0 742.0 21/11/20 25/11/20
Inflation Rate MoM OCT   [GB] -0.40 0.40 13/11/20 18/11/20
PPI Core Output MoM OCT   [GB] 114.8 115.0 13/11/20 18/11/20
Import YoY OCT   [JP] 5,380 0 13/11/20 18/11/20
Jobless Claims 4 Week Average   [US] 788.5 755.3 16/11/20 19/11/20
Foreign Bond Investment   [JP] 1,373 1,009 16/11/20 19/11/20
Housing Price Index YoY   [US] 1.10 1.50 21/11/20 24/11/20
Inflation Rate YoY OCT   [JP] 0.0000 0.1000 16/11/20 20/11/20
Retail Sales YoY OCT   [GB] -13.1 4.7 16/11/20 20/11/20
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 757.0 709.0 16/11/20 19/11/20
House Price Index Mom   [US] 1.10 1.50 21/11/20 24/11/20
Core Inflation Rate YoY   [SG] -0.20 -0.10 21/11/20 23/11/20
Public Sector Net Borrowing OCT   [GB] -30,113 -36,101 16/11/20 20/11/20
Inflation Rate YoY OCT   [SG] -0.80 0.00 21/11/20 23/11/20
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [IN] 560,720 568,494 16/11/20 20/11/20
Core Inflation Rate YoY OCT   [JP] -0.20 -0.30 16/11/20 20/11/20
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 711.0 742.0 21/11/20 25/11/20
Inflation Rate MoM OCT   [JP] 0.0000 -0.1000 16/11/20 20/11/20
Corporate Profit QoQ   [US] 1,779 1,589 21/11/20 25/11/20
Employment Change OCT   [AU] -42,500 178,800 16/11/20 19/11/20
Stock Investment by Foreigners   [JP] 484.5 422.5 16/11/20 19/11/20
Existing Home Sales OCT   [US] 5,980 6,540 16/11/20 19/11/20
Inflation Rate MoM OCT   [SG] 0.50 0.30 21/11/20 23/11/20
Personal Spending MoM OCT   [US] 1.00 1.40 21/11/20 25/11/20
Bank Loan Growth YoY   [IN] 5.70 5.10 16/11/20 20/11/20
PPI YoY OCT   [RU] -0.80 0.00 13/11/20 18/11/20
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3   [SG] -13.3 -7.0 21/11/20 23/11/20
Markit Manufacturing PMI NOV   [AU] 51.1 53.5 21/11/20 24/11/20
Export YoY OCT   [JP] 6,055 6,566 13/11/20 18/11/20
Balance Of Trade OCT   [JP] 687.8 872.9 13/11/20 18/11/20
New Home Sales OCT   [US] 994.0 959.0 21/11/20 25/11/20
Existing Home Sales MoM OCT   [US] 5,980 6,540 16/11/20 19/11/20
Retail Sales MoM OCT   [GB] 12.3 1.5 16/11/20 20/11/20
Retail Price Index MoM OCT   [GB] 0.50 1.10 13/11/20 18/11/20
Markit Manufacturing PMI NOV   [US] 53.2 53.4 21/11/20 23/11/20
Retail Price Index YoY OCT   [GB] 0.50 1.10 13/11/20 18/11/20
Markit Services PMI NOV   [AU] 50.8 53.7 21/11/20 23/11/20
Inflation Rate YoY OCT   [GB] 0.20 0.50 13/11/20 18/11/20
PPI Output MoM OCT   [GB] 115.2 115.1 13/11/20 18/11/20
GDP Price Index QoQ   [US] 112.8 113.9 21/11/20 25/11/20
PPI Core Output YoY OCT   [GB] 114.8 115.0 13/11/20 18/11/20
Wholesale Inventories MoM   [US] 0.50 0.40 21/11/20 25/11/20
Goods Trade Balance OCT   [US] -83,110 -79,370 21/11/20 25/11/20

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
CHSDL 2025 5 Y 1000 - 24/11/20 11:07 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
KASDL 2032 12 Y 1000 6.68% - 6.70% 24/11/20 11:07 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
MHSDL 2030 10 Y 1000 6.55% 24/11/20 11:08 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
GJSDL 2030 10 Y 1500 6.52% 24/11/20 11:04 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
TSSDL 2050 30 Y 1072 6.80% - 6.83% 24/11/20 11:02 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
TNSDL 2040 20 Y 1000 6.54% - 6.63% 24/11/20 11:05 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
MHSDL 2032 12 Y 1000 6.69% 24/11/20 11:12 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
MHSDL 2028 8 Y 1000 - 24/11/20 11:05 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
364 DTB 18/11/2021 364 D 4000 3.43% - 3.44% 19/11/20 14:31 3.41% 4000 Yield 13/11/20 18/11/20 19/11/20
RJSDL 2030 10 Y 1000 6.63% 24/11/20 11:06 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
4.48% GS 2023 3 Y 6000 4.30% - 4.35% 20/11/20 14:16 4.2599% 6000 Price 13/11/20 20/11/20 23/11/20
GASDL 2030 10 Y 100 6.54% - 6.63% 24/11/20 11:06 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
6.22% GS 2035 15 Y 9000 6.21% - 6.22% 20/11/20 14:15 6.2295% 9000 Price 13/11/20 20/11/20 23/11/20
91 DTB 25/02/2021 91 D 9000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 20/11/20 25/11/20 26/11/20
JKSDL 2032 12 Y 1005 6.68% - 6.70% 24/11/20 11:13 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
HPSDL 2029 9.5 Y 500 - 24/11/20 11:12 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
182 DTB 27/05/2021 182 D 3000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 20/11/20 25/11/20 26/11/20
6.67% GS 2050 30 Y 5000 6.64% - 6.65% 20/11/20 14:15 6.6280% 5000 Price 13/11/20 20/11/20 23/11/20
182 DTB 20/05/2021 182 D 3000 3.33% - 3.34% 19/11/20 14:32 3.33% 3000 Yield 13/11/20 18/11/20 19/11/20
KASDL 2030 10 Y 1000 6.54% - 6.63% 24/11/20 11:08 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
364 DTB 25/11/2021 364 D 4000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 20/11/20 25/11/20 26/11/20
BRSDL 2025 5 Y 2000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
UPSDL 2030 10 Y 2000 6.54% - 6.63% 24/11/20 11:12 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
HPSDL 2028 8.5 Y 500 - 24/11/20 11:12 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
91 DTB 18/02/2021 91 D 9000 3.05% - 3.08% 19/11/20 14:32 2.97% 9000 Yield 13/11/20 18/11/20 19/11/20

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