• 20 NOV
  • Knight Snippet
  • 20/11/2020

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,

This is your host Priyancka Mahore, AVP of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.

Here is all what you need to know before going into trade for 20-Nov-2020.

International Market:
- Jobless claims totaled 7.42 Lakhs last week Vs. economist expectations of 7.1 Lakh. Previous week had 7.09 Lakh jobless claims, which is now 7.42 lakhs

- The focus has shifted away from exuberance on vaccines to the rising infection rate and the start of the deterioration of the fundamentals we’re seeing in the data heading into Q4 in US

- With COVID-19 fear in mind, US 10-year closed 2bps down at 0.86% and 30-year down 4bps at 1.58%

Crude Oil Market:
- Crude is now trading at $44.23/bbl

- Crude short term range: $42-$45

- We have been vocal on the bullish crude trade with $50/bbl target by Jan-2021 and few of our clients are holding LONG crude from recent $37/bbl

Currency Market:
- Dollar index (DXY) is at: 92.30;  

- DXY today's range: 92.10 - 92.79

- A close below 92.10 will take DXY at 52-week low levels of 91.74, and we at Knight Research believe that it is just a matter of weeks when DXY will be at 52-week low again

- USDCNY or Chinese yuan is at 6.58

- USDINR with a low of 74.12 closed at 74.25 yesterday

- USDINR Range for today: 74.00 - 74.30

- As we had mentioned, USDINR now has closed below 74.50 and 74.30 consecutively. But, we feel 74 psychological level is not so easy to breach and RBI may intervene at 74 levels

Domestic Market:
- Domestic markets were range bound yesterday as well

- 5.77 GS 2030 bond yields have not gone below 5.85% levels since Oct-26

- Remember, when the yields were at 5.80% levels in the euphoria, we asked all the clients to book the profits at 5.82% levels and it seems in the hindsight it was a right decision

- Yesterday's OMOs were not promising, telling the same story - RBI is pretty much fine with current yield levels

- The OMO cut-offs were were within the expectation range

Govt Disinvestment News:
- Govt is planning to raise Rs. 1,500 Cr from IRFC IPO which is expected to be launched by March-2021

- So far, Govt has been able to raise Rs. 6,100 Cr only in this fiscal year, whereas budget had a target to raise Rs. 2.1 Lakh Cr

- The COVID-19 pandemic has delayed several big-ticket disinvestment proposals, including strategic stake sale in BPCL and IPO offering of LIC

- There is a G-Sec auction scheduled today and Knight Research will be available with cut-offs by 10.30am

Use our intra-day trading models for quick trading profits.

That's it for today.  You were listening to Knight Snippets with Priyancka Mahore from Knight Fintech.

See you next week with the new episode of Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
GDP Price Index QoQ Final Q3   [SG] -13.2 7.9 21/11/20 23/11/20
Unemployment Rate OCT   [AU] 6.90 7.00 16/11/20 19/11/20
New Home Sales MoM   [US] 994.0 959.0 21/11/20 25/11/20
Deposit Growth YoY   [IN] 10.5 10.1 16/11/20 20/11/20
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 711.0 742.0 21/11/20 25/11/20
Jobless Claims 4 Week Average   [US] 788.5 755.3 16/11/20 19/11/20
Foreign Bond Investment   [JP] 1,373 1,009 16/11/20 19/11/20
Housing Price Index YoY   [US] 1.10 1.50 21/11/20 24/11/20
Inflation Rate YoY OCT   [JP] 0.0000 0.1000 16/11/20 20/11/20
Retail Sales YoY OCT   [GB] -13.1 4.7 16/11/20 20/11/20
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 757.0 709.0 16/11/20 19/11/20
House Price Index Mom   [US] 1.10 1.50 21/11/20 24/11/20
Core Inflation Rate YoY   [SG] -0.20 -0.10 21/11/20 23/11/20
Public Sector Net Borrowing OCT   [GB] -30,113 -36,101 16/11/20 20/11/20
Inflation Rate YoY OCT   [SG] -0.80 0.00 21/11/20 23/11/20
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [IN] 560,720 568,494 16/11/20 20/11/20
Core Inflation Rate YoY OCT   [JP] -0.20 -0.30 16/11/20 20/11/20
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 711.0 742.0 21/11/20 25/11/20
Inflation Rate MoM OCT   [JP] 0.0000 -0.1000 16/11/20 20/11/20
Corporate Profit QoQ   [US] 1,779 1,589 21/11/20 25/11/20
Employment Change OCT   [AU] -42,500 178,800 16/11/20 19/11/20
Stock Investment by Foreigners   [JP] 484.5 422.5 16/11/20 19/11/20
Existing Home Sales OCT   [US] 5,980 6,540 16/11/20 19/11/20
Inflation Rate MoM OCT   [SG] 0.50 0.30 21/11/20 23/11/20
Personal Spending MoM OCT   [US] 1.00 1.40 21/11/20 25/11/20
Bank Loan Growth YoY   [IN] 5.70 5.10 16/11/20 20/11/20
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3   [SG] -13.3 -7.0 21/11/20 23/11/20
Markit Manufacturing PMI NOV   [AU] 51.1 53.5 21/11/20 24/11/20
New Home Sales OCT   [US] 994.0 959.0 21/11/20 25/11/20
Existing Home Sales MoM OCT   [US] 5,980 6,540 16/11/20 19/11/20
Retail Sales MoM OCT   [GB] 12.3 1.5 16/11/20 20/11/20
Markit Manufacturing PMI NOV   [US] 53.2 53.4 21/11/20 23/11/20
Markit Services PMI NOV   [AU] 50.8 53.7 21/11/20 23/11/20
GDP Price Index QoQ   [US] 112.8 113.9 21/11/20 25/11/20
Wholesale Inventories MoM   [US] 0.50 0.40 21/11/20 25/11/20
Goods Trade Balance OCT   [US] -83,110 -79,370 21/11/20 25/11/20

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
CHSDL 2025 5 Y 1000 - 24/11/20 11:07 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
KASDL 2032 12 Y 1000 6.68% - 6.70% 24/11/20 11:07 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
MHSDL 2030 10 Y 1000 6.55% 24/11/20 11:08 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
GJSDL 2030 10 Y 1500 6.52% 24/11/20 11:04 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
TSSDL 2050 30 Y 1072 6.80% - 6.83% 24/11/20 11:02 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
TNSDL 2040 20 Y 1000 6.54% - 6.63% 24/11/20 11:05 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
MHSDL 2032 12 Y 1000 6.69% 24/11/20 11:12 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
MHSDL 2028 8 Y 1000 - 24/11/20 11:05 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
RJSDL 2030 10 Y 1000 6.63% 24/11/20 11:06 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
4.48% GS 2023 3 Y 6000 4.30% - 4.35% 20/11/20 14:16 4.2599% 6000 Price 13/11/20 20/11/20 23/11/20
GASDL 2030 10 Y 100 6.54% - 6.63% 24/11/20 11:06 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
6.22% GS 2035 15 Y 9000 6.21% - 6.22% 20/11/20 14:15 6.2295% 9000 Price 13/11/20 20/11/20 23/11/20
91 DTB 25/02/2021 91 D 9000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 20/11/20 25/11/20 26/11/20
JKSDL 2032 12 Y 1005 6.68% - 6.70% 24/11/20 11:13 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
HPSDL 2029 9.5 Y 500 - 24/11/20 11:12 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
182 DTB 27/05/2021 182 D 3000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 20/11/20 25/11/20 26/11/20
6.67% GS 2050 30 Y 5000 6.64% - 6.65% 20/11/20 14:15 6.6280% 5000 Price 13/11/20 20/11/20 23/11/20
KASDL 2030 10 Y 1000 6.54% - 6.63% 24/11/20 11:08 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
364 DTB 25/11/2021 364 D 4000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 20/11/20 25/11/20 26/11/20
BRSDL 2025 5 Y 2000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
UPSDL 2030 10 Y 2000 6.54% - 6.63% 24/11/20 11:12 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20
HPSDL 2028 8.5 Y 500 - 24/11/20 11:12 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 19/11/20 24/11/20 25/11/20

Credit Research: Exposures and Next IP Dates

IOT Utkal Energy Services Ltd.

Debenture

Tata Power Co. Ltd.

Non Convertible Debenture

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