• 14 JAN
  • Knight Snippet
  • 14/01/2021

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,

On this auspicious day, the Knight Research family wishes Happy Pongal and Happy Makar Sankrant to all the treasurers and their families.  

This is your host Parthesh Shah, Co-Founder of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.

Here is all what you need to know before going into trade for 14-Jan-2021.

International Market:
- Long-maturity Treasury yields dropped on Wednesday as investors digested the latest inflation data that showed a very small increase

- In US, the monthly CPI for December showed a rise of 0.4% which was inline

- With inflation genie remains bottled up for now, US treasury yields retreated from high

- US 10-year was down 5 bps closing at 1.10% and 30-year down 6 bps closing at 1.82% on Wednesday  
 - As we had repeatedly said, 1.25% mark is a solid resistance for US 10-year in the medium term and yields will be range-bound for sometime before it rises again  

Crude Oil Market:
- Crude is at $55.95/bbl; range-bound markets

- Crude short term range: $54-57

Currency Market:
- Dollar index (DXY) is at: 90.28

- DXY today's range: 89.64 - 90.82

- It seems, the DXY is gaining strength and inching towards 91

- As we had informed you yesterday that, DXY moves are now becoming uncertain and DXY may gain some strength to reach 91

- USDCNY or Chinese yuan is at 6.47

- USDINR with a high of 73.23, closed at 73.15

- Again, USDINR will be range-bound  

Domestic Market:
- The CPI 4.59% mark could not provide any boost to the sentiment

- After the initial gap up opening, the markets sold-off

- Major selling was seen from Mutual Funds and Foreign banks, the same group which had bought heavily at the start of the 2021 CY

- 5.15 GS 2025, closed at 5.26% Vs 5.19% the previous day  

- 5.77 GS 2030, closed at 5.95% Vs 5.93% the previous day

- On the SDL side, our clients were able to offload 6.61 UP SDL 2031 at 6.59% and pocket 2 bps or 15 paisa or Rs. 75,000/lot

- The important OMOs are scheduled today in liquid papers and expect 10-15 paisa above the 10.30 traded price

- It is to be seen how RBI is taking this OMO aggressively. Any tepid response from RBI will elevate yields  

- We will continue to remind you, Union Budget is coming and it may change the course of our treasury yields range forever

- Make sure you bring your act together before it is too late

That's it for today.  You were listening to Knight Snippets with Parthesh Shah from Knight Fintech.

See you tomorrow with the new episode of Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
Continuing Jobless Claims   [US] 5,198 5,072 11/01/21 14/01/21
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [IN] 586,082 594,582 11/01/21 15/01/21
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 790.0 787.0 11/01/21 14/01/21
Core Inflation Rate MoM DEC   [US] 269.3 269.9 09/01/21 13/01/21
Interest Rate Decision   [KR] 0.50 0.50 11/01/21 15/01/21
WPI FUEL YOY DEC   [IN] 1.48 1.55 11/01/21 14/01/21
WPI Manufacturing YoY DEC   [IN] 1.48 1.55 11/01/21 14/01/21
Jobless Claims 4 Week Average   [US] 837.5 818.8 11/01/21 14/01/21
WPI Food YoY DEC   [IN] 1.48 1.55 11/01/21 14/01/21
WPI Inflation YoY DEC   [IN] 1.48 1.55 11/01/21 14/01/21
Exports Price YoY DEC   [US] 123.1 123.8 11/01/21 14/01/21
Unemployment Rate DEC   [KR] 4.20 4.10 09/01/21 13/01/21
Stock Investment by Foreigners   [JP] -85.5 580.8 11/01/21 15/01/21
Housing Price Index YoY DEC   [CN] 4.00 3.80 11/01/21 15/01/21
Business Confidence JAN   [BR] 62.9 63.1 09/01/21 13/01/21
Inflation Rate MoM DEC   [US] 0.20 0.00 09/01/21 13/01/21
Deposit Growth YoY   [IN] 11.3 11.5 11/01/21 15/01/21
Inflation Rate YoY DEC   [US] 1.20 1.20 09/01/21 13/01/21
Exports YoY DEC   [KR] 95.5 92.0 11/01/21 14/01/21
Foreign Bond Investment   [JP] -291.6 730.7 11/01/21 15/01/21
Export Price MoM DEC   [US] 123.1 123.8 11/01/21 14/01/21
Import Price YoY DEC   [KR] 95.6 95.8 11/01/21 14/01/21
Export YoY DEC   [CN] 2,372 2,681 11/01/21 14/01/21
PPI MoM DEC   [JP] 99.9 99.9 11/01/21 14/01/21
PPI YoY DEC   [JP] -2.10 -2.20 11/01/21 14/01/21
Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC   [US] 1.60 1.60 09/01/21 13/01/21
Import Price MoM DEC   [US] 123.3 123.4 11/01/21 14/01/21
Balance Of Trade DEC   [CN] 584.4 754.3 11/01/21 14/01/21
Bank Loan Growth YoY   [IN] 6.10 6.70 11/01/21 15/01/21
FDI (YTD) YoY DEC   [CN] 1,151 1,372 11/01/21 14/01/21
Import Price YoY DEC   [US] 123.3 123.4 11/01/21 14/01/21
Import YoY DEC   [CN] 1,787 1,926 11/01/21 14/01/21

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
91 DTB 14/04/2021 91 D 4000 3.25% - 3.30% 13/01/21 15:19 3.2799% 4000 Yield 08/01/21 13/01/21 14/01/21
6.67% GS 2050 30 Y 5000 6.52% - 6.54% 15/01/21 11:30 T.B.D T.B.D Yield 11/01/21 15/01/21 18/01/21
MGSDL 2030 10 Y 106 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 14/01/21 19/01/21 20/01/21
UPSDL 2030 10 Y 3000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 14/01/21 19/01/21 20/01/21
GASDL 2030 30 Y 100 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 14/01/21 19/01/21 20/01/21
182 DTB 14/07/2021 182 D 7000 3.42% - 3.45% 13/01/21 15:18 3.4507% 7000 Yield 08/01/21 13/01/21 14/01/21
WBSDL 2035 15 Y 3000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 14/01/21 19/01/21 20/01/21
UPSDL 2030 10 Y 3000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 14/01/21 19/01/21 20/01/21
TSSDL 2040 20 Y 750 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 14/01/21 19/01/21 20/01/21
4.48% GS 2023 3 Y 6000 99.90 - 99.95 15/01/21 11:31 T.B.D T.B.D Price 11/01/21 15/01/21 18/01/21
MPSDL 2036 16 Y 1000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 14/01/21 19/01/21 20/01/21
BRSDL 2025 5 Y 2000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 14/01/21 19/01/21 20/01/21
KASDL 2036 16 Y 1000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 14/01/21 19/01/21 20/01/21
364 DTB 12/01/2022 364 D 8000 3.56% - 3.60% 13/01/21 15:17 3.5790% 8000 Yield 08/01/21 13/01/21 14/01/21
KASDL 2032 12 Y 1000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 14/01/21 19/01/21 20/01/21
6.22% GS 2035 15 Y 9000 98.70 - 98.75 15/01/21 11:32 T.B.D T.B.D Price 11/01/21 15/01/21 18/01/21

Credit Research: Exposures and Next IP Dates

Zydus Wellness Ltd.

Debenture

Tata Capital Housing Finance Ltd.

Non Convertible Debenture

News Bites

To stay updated with us click here for news bites.

Daily Research Report

Click here for Daily Research Reports.