• 03 MAY
  • Knight Snippet
  • 03/05/2021

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,

This is your host Parthesh Shah, Co-Founder of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.

Here is all what you need to know before going into trade for 03-May-2021.

International Market:
- With more and more Fed stimulus, Personal income and spending rose 21.1% and 4.2%, respectively, in March
- Now, this increase in personal income and spending comes with inflationary pressure
- PCE price index rose 0.5%
- Core PCE index, which excludes food and energy rose 0.4% Vs analyst expectations of 0.3%
- President Joe Biden on Wednesday had proposed $1.8 tn in new spending on education and childcare, which would be financed by raising the top

marginal tax rate for the wealthiest Americans
- That is on top of a $2 tn jobs-and-infrastructure plan to be paid for by raising taxes on U.S. companies
- Suddenly, in US economy unemployment rates are falling drastically and inflation expectations are rising again
- US 10-year closed at 1.65% and 30-year closed at 2.30% on Friday

Did you know that:
- In US, almost 10 Cr people have been vaccinated fully, which is the 1/3rd of their population
- As a result, COVID-19 cases are falling sharply
- Now, their 7-day avg of daily new cases is under 50,000 for the first time since October  
- Hospitalizations and deaths from the disease are also falling
- This is a key takeaway for India, if we want to win this war against COVID-19

Crude Oil Market:
- Crude is trading at $66.86/bbl
- Crude short term range: $66-69

Currency Market:
- Dollar index (DXY) is at: 91.24
- The dollar rally was mainly due to:
#1: End-of month dollar inflow
#2: Rising inflation expectations
#3: Personal income and spending data show the underlying economical strength
- DXY today's range: 91.09 - 91.42
- USDCNY or Chinese yuan is at 6.47
- USDINR with a low of 73.95, closed at 74.09
- Please note that, the resistance is at 73.90-95 range
- USDINR range: 73.90 - 74.30

- Knight Call:
- We expect USDINR to touch 74.25 and hover around that region
- A close below 74.00 is unlikely today

Domestic Market:
- GST revenue for the March, collected in April came at 1.41 Lakh Cr, which will be a major boost to the bond market sentiments
- This is a 7th consecutive month where GST collections have been above Rs. 1 Lakh Cr
- But, important thing to note is: since it's the year-end, most companies close their books and raise invoices during the financial close and hence, this high number
- From April onwards, we have a near lock-down situation, which will keep GST collections low for few months

5.63 GS 2026 closed at 5.59% Vs 5.60% the previous trading day;
5.85 GS 2030 closed at 6.03% Vs 6.06% the previous trading day;  

30-Apr-2021 G-Sec auction analysis:
- 3.96 GS 2022 @ 4.08%
- 5.85 GS 2030 @ 6.05%
- 6.76 GS 2061 @ 6.83%
- Against an notified auction size of Rs. 26,000 Cr, RBI by exercising green-shoe options accepted a total of Rs. 30,835 Cr
- Against our expectations, markets did not touch 6.08% even though the cut-off was at 6.05%

Did you know that:
- It would cost just 0.36% of the GDP to vaccinate everyone above 18 years of age
So, cost is not the issue at all here with Govt. It is the supply deficiency and the infrastructure to provide vaccinations will address India's problems

That's it for today.  You were listening to Knight Snippets with Parthesh Shah from Knight Fintech.

See you tomorrow with a new episode of Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
Retail Sales YoY MAR   [SG] -6.10 5.20 30/04/21 05/05/21
ISM Manufacturing Employment APR   [US] 60.8 64.7 30/04/21 03/05/21
Balance Of Trade MAR   [AU] 9,616 7,529 30/04/21 04/05/21
Markit composite PMI APR   [BR] 49.6 45.1 30/04/21 05/05/21
ISM Manufacturing APR   [US] 60.8 64.7 30/04/21 03/05/21
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 566.0 553.0 01/05/21 06/05/21
Markit Manufacturing PMI APR   [US] 59.1 60.6 30/04/21 03/05/21
Export MoM MAR   [AU] 39,452 38,926 30/04/21 04/05/21
Markit Manufacturing PMI APR   [AU] 56.8 59.7 30/04/21 03/05/21
Markit composite PMI APR   [RU] 52.6 54.6 01/05/21 06/05/21
Markit Services PMI APR   [IN] 55.3 54.6 30/04/21 05/05/21
Inflation Rate MoM APR   [KR] 0.50 0.10 30/04/21 04/05/21
Retail Sales MoM MAR   [SG] -1.70 -1.60 30/04/21 05/05/21
Markit Manufacturing PMI APR   [TH] 47.8 48.8 30/04/21 05/05/21
Industrial Production YoY MAR   [BR] 2.30 0.40 30/04/21 05/05/21
Retail Sales MoM MAR   [KR] 1.60 -0.80 28/04/21 30/04/21
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [RU] 586,266 573,322 01/05/21 06/05/21
Monetary Policy Report   [GB] 0.1000 0.1000 01/05/21 06/05/21
Markit Manufacturing PMI APR   [IN] 55.5 55.3 30/04/21 03/05/21
MPC Meetings Minutes   [GB] 0.1000 0.1000 01/05/21 06/05/21
Retail Sales YoY MAR   [KR] 0.0000 8.4000 28/04/21 30/04/21
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [KR] 446,130 447,560 01/05/21 06/05/21
Markit Services PMI APR   [RU] 55.8 55.2 01/05/21 06/05/21
IMPORTS MAR   [US] 260,055 258,329 30/04/21 04/05/21
Export MAR   [US] 192,232 187,250 30/04/21 04/05/21
Inflation Rate YoY Apr   [KR] 1.10 1.50 30/04/21 04/05/21
ISM Manufacturing Price APR   [US] 60.8 64.7 30/04/21 03/05/21
Industrial Production MoM MAR   [BR] 0.40 -0.70 30/04/21 05/05/21
Industrial Production YoY MAR   [KR] 7.80 0.90 28/04/21 30/04/21
Jobless Claims 4 Week Average   [US] 655.8 611.8 01/05/21 06/05/21
Interest Rate Decision   [BR] 2.75 3.50 01/05/21 06/05/21
Import MoM MAR   [AU] 29,835 31,398 30/04/21 04/05/21
Markit Services PMI APR   [BR] 47.1 44.1 30/04/21 05/05/21
Construction Spending MoM MAR   [US] 1.20 -0.80 30/04/21 03/05/21
Balance Of Trade MAR   [US] -67,823 -71,078 30/04/21 04/05/21
Industrial Production MoM MAR   [KR] -1.20 4.30 28/04/21 30/04/21

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
6.64% GS 2035 15 Y 10000 100.44 - 100.48 07/05/21 15:15 100.47 10000 Price 03/05/21 07/05/21 10/05/21
6.96% TSSDL 2051 30 Y 1500 6.86% - 6.92% 04/05/21 16:27 6.96% 1500 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
5.63% GS 2026 5 Y 11000 100.38 - 100.42 07/05/21 15:15 100.36 11000 Price 03/05/21 07/05/21 10/05/21
6.53% TNSDL 2031 10 Y 1500 98.20-98.25 04/05/21 16:28 98.17 1500 Price 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
364 DTB 04/05/2022 364 D 6000 3.69% - 3.72% 05/05/21 16:09 3.7199% 6000 Yield 30/04/21 05/05/21 06/05/21
6.91% APSDL 2040 19 Y 1000 6.86% - 6.92% 04/05/21 16:32 6.91% 1000 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.68% HRSDL 2039 18 Y 1500 6.86% - 6.92% 04/05/21 16:34 6.9495% 1500 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.82% MHSDL 2032 11 Y 20000 6.82% 04/05/21 16:26 6.82% 2500 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
91 DTB 04/08/2021 91 D 15000 3.33% - 3.34% 05/05/21 16:07 3.3346% 15000 Yield 30/04/21 05/05/21 06/05/21
6.90% APSDL 2039 18 Y 1000 6.86% - 6.92% 04/05/21 16:37 6.90% 1000 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.76% GS 2061 40 Y 9000 6.80% - 6.83% 30/04/21 17:59 6.8346% 9695 Yield 26/04/21 30/04/21 03/05/21
6.67% GS 2050 30 Y 7000 6.82% - 6.84% 07/05/21 15:17 6.8203% 7000 Yield 03/05/21 07/05/21 10/05/21
6.87% MHSDL 2033 12 Y 2000 6.84% 04/05/21 16:36 6.87% 2500 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
3.96% GS 2022 2 Y 3000 99.70 - 99.75 30/04/21 17:57 99.82 4275 Price 26/04/21 30/04/21 03/05/21
6.78% RJSDL 2031 10 Y 1500 6.75% - 6.78% 04/05/21 16:29 6.78% 1500 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
182 DTB 03/11/2021 182 D 15000 3.53% - 3.55% 05/05/21 16:11 3.5499% 15000 Yield 30/04/21 05/05/21 06/05/21
5.85% GS 2030 10 Y 14000 98.37 - 98.40 30/04/21 17:58 98.53 16865 Price 26/04/21 30/04/21 03/05/21
6.92% HRSDL 2036 15 Y 1000 6.86% - 6.92% 04/05/21 16:30 6.92% 1000 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.90% JKSDL 2033 12 Y 400 6.84% 04/05/21 16:35 6.90% 400 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21

Credit Research: Exposures and Next IP Dates

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd.

Bonds/NCDs

State Bank of India

Bonds

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