• 05 MAY
  • Knight Snippet
  • 05/05/2021

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,

This is your host Parthesh Shah, Co-Founder of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.
Here is all what you need to know before going into trade for 05-May-2021.

International Market:
- US equity markets are witnessing weakness, but that is becoming a boon for bond markets as the asset managers are buying US bonds  
- In an interesting statement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that rates may need to rise to keep the economy from running too hot
- Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan repeated the need to discuss tapering the central bank’s asset purchases
- We, at Knight Research are firm believers that inflation is coming and one needs to be prepared for the same
- US 10-year closed 2 bps lower at 1.61% and 30-year also closed at 2.27% on Tuesday
- German 10-year bunds are at -0.16% which was last seen at March-2020

Crude Oil Market:
- Crude is trading at $69.74/bbl
- Crude short term range: $67-70
- Crude will touch $70/bbl and if global economic recovery stays on course, we may see crude @ $80/bbl by Dec-end

Currency Market:
- Dollar index (DXY) is at: 91.22
- We had a resistance yesterday at 91.34 and it made a high of 91.28
- DXY today's range: 91.03 - 91.42
- USDCNY or Chinese yuan is at 6.47
- USDINR with a low of 73.76,
- Watch out: RBI Govr address today @ 10am

Domestic Market:
- There was an announcement on RBI twitter handle that, Mr. Shaktikanta Das will address the nation at 10.00 am today
- Few days back, bankers had requested RBI to allow a 3-month moratorium to retail and MSME borrowers.
- We expect RBI Govr to address this concern
- We do not know the exact agenda for today's RBI Govr's address and would advice everyone to stay away from the market unless it is positive announcements
- If it is positive for the market, do not shy away taking an intra-day bet for 2-3 bps and Knight Research Team will be available to assist you
- If the announcement is long lasting positive, you may HOLD the position for few days, but that will entirely depend on what RBI Govr has to say
- Feel free to ping/call us immediately before taking any prompt actions

5.63 GS 2026 closed at 5.59% Vs 5.57% the previous trading day;
5.85 GS 2030 closed at 6.01% Vs 6.00% the previous trading day;  

For 04-May-2021 SDL Auctions cut-offs:
For 10-year maturity: TN @ 6.77, RJ @ 6.78
For 11-year maturity: MH @ 6.82
For 12-year maturity: JK @ 6.90

Watch out:
RBI Govr address @ 10.00 AM

That's it for today.  You were listening to Knight Snippets with Parthesh Shah from Knight Fintech.

See you tomorrow with a new episode of Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
Retail Sales YoY MAR   [SG] -6.10 5.20 30/04/21 05/05/21
Industrial Production MoM MAR   [GB] -1.80 1.00 10/05/21 12/05/21
Balance Of Trade MAR   [AU] 9,616 7,529 30/04/21 04/05/21
Household Spending MoM MAR   [JP] 2.40 2.40 10/05/21 11/05/21
Inflation Rate YoY APR   [BR] 5.20 6.10 10/05/21 11/05/21
Manufacturing Production YoY MAR   [GB] -5.00 -4.20 10/05/21 12/05/21
Markit composite PMI APR   [BR] 49.6 45.1 30/04/21 05/05/21
Industrial Production YoY MAR   [GB] -4.30 -3.50 10/05/21 12/05/21
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 566.0 553.0 01/05/21 06/05/21
Export MoM MAR   [AU] 39,452 38,926 30/04/21 04/05/21
Business Investment QoQ Q1   [GB] 13.2 5.9 10/05/21 12/05/21
Goods Trade Balance MAR   [GB] -12,592 -16,442 10/05/21 12/05/21
Markit composite PMI APR   [RU] 52.6 54.6 01/05/21 06/05/21
Retail Sales MoM MAR   [AU] -0.80 1.30 07/05/21 10/05/21
Markit Services PMI APR   [IN] 55.3 54.6 30/04/21 05/05/21
Inflation Rate MoM APR   [KR] 0.50 0.10 30/04/21 04/05/21
Retail Sales MoM MAR   [SG] -1.70 -1.60 30/04/21 05/05/21
Vehicle Sales YoY APR   [CN] 1,454,806 2,525,691 10/05/21 11/05/21
Markit Manufacturing PMI APR   [TH] 47.8 48.8 30/04/21 05/05/21
Industrial Production YoY MAR   [BR] 2.30 0.40 30/04/21 05/05/21
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [RU] 586,266 573,322 01/05/21 06/05/21
Monetary Policy Report   [GB] 0.1000 0.1000 01/05/21 06/05/21
Manufacturing Production YoY MAR   [IN] 0.0000 0.0000 10/05/21 12/05/21
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1   [GB] 16.9 1.3 10/05/21 12/05/21
Business Investment YoY Q1   [GB] 13.2 5.9 10/05/21 12/05/21
Balance Of Trade MAR   [GB] -3,370 -7,123 10/05/21 12/05/21
MPC Meetings Minutes   [GB] 0.1000 0.1000 01/05/21 06/05/21
Household Spending YoY MAR   [JP] -6.60 -6.10 10/05/21 11/05/21
Inflation Rate MoM APR   [BR] 0.86 0.93 10/05/21 11/05/21
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [KR] 446,130 447,560 01/05/21 06/05/21
Inflation Rate MoM APR   [CN] -0.50 0.60 10/05/21 11/05/21
Markit Services PMI APR   [RU] 55.8 55.2 01/05/21 06/05/21
GDP YoY MAR   [GB] -8.50 -7.80 10/05/21 12/05/21
IMPORTS MAR   [US] 260,055 258,329 30/04/21 04/05/21
Foreign Exchange Reserves APR   [JP] 1,379,400 1,368,500 10/05/21 12/05/21
Export MAR   [US] 192,232 187,250 30/04/21 04/05/21
Unemployment Rate APR   [KR] 3.90 4.00 10/05/21 11/05/21
Inflation Rate YoY Apr   [KR] 1.10 1.50 30/04/21 04/05/21
Industrial Production MoM MAR   [BR] 0.40 -0.70 30/04/21 05/05/21
PPI YoY APR   [CN] 4.40 1.70 10/05/21 11/05/21
Jobless Claims 4 Week Average   [US] 655.8 611.8 01/05/21 06/05/21
Interest Rate Decision   [BR] 2.75 3.50 01/05/21 06/05/21
Import MoM MAR   [AU] 29,835 31,398 30/04/21 04/05/21
Inflation Rate YoY Apr   [CN] 0.40 -0.20 10/05/21 11/05/21
Markit Services PMI APR   [BR] 47.1 44.1 30/04/21 05/05/21
Inflation Rate YoY Apr   [IN] 0.0000 0.0000 10/05/21 12/05/21
Balance Of Trade MAR   [US] -67,823 -71,078 30/04/21 04/05/21
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1   [GB] -8.50 -7.30 10/05/21 12/05/21
Manufacturing Production MoM MAR   [GB] 1.30 1.50 10/05/21 12/05/21

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
6.64% GS 2035 15 Y 10000 100.44 - 100.48 07/05/21 15:15 100.47 10000 Price 03/05/21 07/05/21 10/05/21
6.96% TSSDL 2051 30 Y 1500 6.86% - 6.92% 04/05/21 16:27 6.96% 1500 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.94% APSDL 2037 16 Y 1000 6.82% - 6.90% 11/05/21 15:17 6.94% 1000 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
5.63% GS 2026 5 Y 11000 100.38 - 100.42 07/05/21 15:15 100.36 11000 Price 03/05/21 07/05/21 10/05/21
6.53% TNSDL 2031 10 Y 1500 98.20-98.25 04/05/21 16:28 98.17 1500 Price 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.88% MHSDL 2033 12 Y 1500 6.88% 11/05/21 15:16 6.88% 1500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
364 DTB 04/05/2022 364 D 6000 3.69% - 3.72% 05/05/21 16:09 3.7199% 6000 Yield 30/04/21 05/05/21 06/05/21
6.91% APSDL 2040 19 Y 1000 6.86% - 6.92% 04/05/21 16:32 6.91% 1000 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.79% HRSDL 2031 10 Y 1000 6.80% 11/05/21 15:13 6.79% 1000 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
91 DTB 12/08/2021 91 D 15000 3.34% - 3.37% 21/05/21 16:55 3.3692% 15000 Yield 07/05/21 12/05/21 13/05/21
6.90% MZSDL 2033 12 Y 150 6.82% - 6.90% 11/05/21 15:18 6.90% 150 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
182 DTB 11/11/2021 182 D 15000 3.51% - 3.53% 21/05/21 16:56 3.5701% 15000 Yield 07/05/21 12/05/21 13/05/21
6.83% WBSDL 2031 10 Y 2000 6.78% - 6.80% 11/05/21 15:23 6.83% 2000 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
6.68% HRSDL 2039 18 Y 1500 6.86% - 6.92% 04/05/21 16:34 6.9495% 1500 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.82% MHSDL 2032 11 Y 20000 6.82% 04/05/21 16:26 6.82% 2500 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.49% TNSDL 2050 30 Y 1500 6.82% - 6.90% 11/05/21 15:26 6.9297% 1500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
91 DTB 04/08/2021 91 D 15000 3.33% - 3.34% 05/05/21 16:07 3.3346% 15000 Yield 30/04/21 05/05/21 06/05/21
6.90% APSDL 2039 18 Y 1000 6.86% - 6.92% 04/05/21 16:37 6.90% 1000 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.67% GS 2050 30 Y 7000 6.82% - 6.84% 07/05/21 15:17 6.8203% 7000 Yield 03/05/21 07/05/21 10/05/21
6.63% TNSDL 2055 35 Y 1500 - 11/05/21 15:14 6.9301% 1500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
6.87% MHSDL 2033 12 Y 2000 6.84% 04/05/21 16:36 6.87% 2500 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.94% APSDL 2038 17 Y 1000 6.82% - 6.90% 11/05/21 15:22 6.94% 1000 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
6.84% MHSDL 2032 11 Y 1500 6.82% 11/05/21 15:20 6.84% 1500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
6.78% RJSDL 2031 10 Y 1500 6.75% - 6.78% 04/05/21 16:29 6.78% 1500 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
182 DTB 03/11/2021 182 D 15000 3.53% - 3.55% 05/05/21 16:11 3.5499% 15000 Yield 30/04/21 05/05/21 06/05/21
6.92% HRSDL 2036 15 Y 1000 6.86% - 6.92% 04/05/21 16:30 6.92% 1000 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21
6.77% RJSDL 2031 10 Y 500 6.78% 11/05/21 15:25 6.77% 500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
364 DTB 12/05/2022 364 D 6000 3.70% - 3.72% 21/05/21 16:56 3.72% 6000 Yield 07/05/21 12/05/21 13/05/21
6.13% RJSDL 2026 5 Y 500 6.27% - 6.30% 11/05/21 15:24 6.13% 500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
6.90% JKSDL 2033 12 Y 400 6.84% 04/05/21 16:35 6.90% 400 Yield 30/04/21 04/05/21 05/05/21

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