• 07 MAY
  • Knight Snippet
  • 07/05/2021

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,

This is your host Parthesh Shah, Co-Founder of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.
Here is all what you need to know before going into trade for 07-May-2021.

International Market:
- In US Fixed Income market, all eyes are on Friday's non-farm payrolls report
- Analysts are suggesting Friday's report show addition of more than a million jobs
- The recent remarks from FED where FED reiterated that the upcoming inflation pressure will be benign and transitory is what treasury is accounting
- We at Knight Research do not feel the yields would rise immediately, rather inflation trajectory would define the path of yields
- US 10-year closed at 1.58% and 30-year closed at 2.24% on Thursday

Crude Oil Market:
- Crude is trading at $68.18/bbl
- Crude short term range: $67-70

Currency Market:
- Dollar index (DXY) is at: 90.90
- DXY today's range: 90.42 - 91.28
- As we had said, DXY is directionless and may get clues from Friday's non-farm numbers  
- USDCNY or Chinese yuan is at 6.46
- USDINR with a low of 73.77, closed at 73.78, daily lower highs and lower lows are formed
- USDINR range: 73.50 - 73.95

Watch out:
Friday's US non-farm payrolls data

Domestic Market:
5.63 GS 2026 closed at 5.52% Vs 5.56% the previous trading day;
5.85 GS 2030 closed at 5.97% Vs 5.98% the previous trading day;  

06-May-2021 Operation Twist cut-offs:
- RBI did not accept any bids in 6.97 GS 2062 and 7.17 GS 2028
- But, entire Rs. 10,000 Cr was accepted @ 5.97 or 99.10 (which was also Knight's cut-off expectation)

How do we infer?
- RBI accepting entire Rs. 10,000 Cr was a vote of confidence to the dealers
- Whoever was stuck in the last few weeks, would have got an exit in 5.85 GS 2030 by now

Corporate Bonds:
- Majority of the corporates have not started their borrowing as they are waiting for clarity on COVID-19 situation to start their FY22 borrowing
There is Rs. 32,000 Cr G-Sec auction scheduled today
The important securities in today' s auctions are:
- 5.63 GS 2026 for Rs. 11,000 Cr
- 6.64 GS 2035 for Rs. 10,000 Cr  
- No 5.85 GS 2030 security today for auction
- Knight Research will be available with expected cut-offs by 10.40am

Watch Out:
RBI's G-Sec auctions today. The sentiment is positive with all the good news and good deeds by RBI around.  
- We expect the 10-year benchmark to trade in 5.95 - 6.03 range in near future

That's it for today.  You were listening to Knight Snippets with Parthesh Shah from Knight Fintech.

See you next week with a new episode of Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
Industrial Production MoM MAR   [GB] -1.80 1.00 10/05/21 12/05/21
Household Spending MoM MAR   [JP] 2.40 2.40 10/05/21 11/05/21
Inflation Rate YoY APR   [BR] 5.20 6.10 10/05/21 11/05/21
Manufacturing Production YoY MAR   [GB] -5.00 -4.20 10/05/21 12/05/21
Industrial Production YoY MAR   [GB] -4.30 -3.50 10/05/21 12/05/21
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 566.0 553.0 01/05/21 06/05/21
Export Price YoY APR   [KR] 101.8 104.0 12/05/21 14/05/21
Business Investment QoQ Q1   [GB] 13.2 5.9 10/05/21 12/05/21
Goods Trade Balance MAR   [GB] -12,592 -16,442 10/05/21 12/05/21
Markit composite PMI APR   [RU] 52.6 54.6 01/05/21 06/05/21
Retail Sales MoM MAR   [AU] -0.80 1.30 07/05/21 10/05/21
Import Price YoY APR   [KR] 109.8 109.2 12/05/21 14/05/21
Manufacturing Production YoY APR   [US] -4.70 3.10 12/05/21 14/05/21
Vehicle Sales YoY APR   [CN] 1,454,806 2,525,691 10/05/21 11/05/21
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [RU] 586,266 573,322 01/05/21 06/05/21
Monetary Policy Report   [GB] 0.1000 0.1000 01/05/21 06/05/21
Manufacturing Production YoY MAR   [IN] 0.0000 0.0000 10/05/21 12/05/21
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1   [GB] 16.9 1.3 10/05/21 12/05/21
Business Investment YoY Q1   [GB] 13.2 5.9 10/05/21 12/05/21
WPI Manufacturing YoY APR   [IN] 0.0000 0.0000 12/05/21 14/05/21
Balance Of Trade MAR   [GB] -3,370 -7,123 10/05/21 12/05/21
MPC Meetings Minutes   [GB] 0.1000 0.1000 01/05/21 06/05/21
Household Spending YoY MAR   [JP] -6.60 -6.10 10/05/21 11/05/21
Import APR   [IN] 45,450 47,550 12/05/21 14/05/21
WPI Food YoY APR   [IN] 0.0000 0.0000 12/05/21 14/05/21
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [IN] 588,020 598,020 12/05/21 14/05/21
Inflation Rate MoM APR   [BR] 0.86 0.93 10/05/21 11/05/21
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [KR] 446,130 447,560 01/05/21 06/05/21
Inflation Rate MoM APR   [CN] -0.50 0.60 10/05/21 11/05/21
Markit Services PMI APR   [RU] 55.8 55.2 01/05/21 06/05/21
GDP YoY MAR   [GB] -8.50 -7.80 10/05/21 12/05/21
Retail Sales MoM APR   [US] -2.70 9.80 12/05/21 14/05/21
Foreign Exchange Reserves APR   [JP] 1,379,400 1,368,500 10/05/21 12/05/21
Export APR   [IN] 30,210 31,210 12/05/21 14/05/21
Unemployment Rate APR   [KR] 3.90 4.00 10/05/21 11/05/21
Export Price YoY APR   [US] 130.9 133.7 12/05/21 14/05/21
Retail Sales YoY APR   [US] 6.70 27.70 12/05/21 14/05/21
Import Price YoY APR   [US] 128.1 129.7 12/05/21 14/05/21
PPI YoY APR   [CN] 4.40 1.70 10/05/21 11/05/21
Jobless Claims 4 Week Average   [US] 655.8 611.8 01/05/21 06/05/21
Interest Rate Decision   [BR] 2.75 3.50 01/05/21 06/05/21
WPI Inflation YoY APR   [IN] 0.0000 0.0000 12/05/21 14/05/21
Inflation Rate YoY Apr   [CN] 0.40 -0.20 10/05/21 11/05/21
Inflation Rate YoY Apr   [IN] 0.0000 0.0000 10/05/21 12/05/21
Balance Of Trade APR   [IN] -15,240 -144,820 12/05/21 14/05/21
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1   [GB] -8.50 -7.30 10/05/21 12/05/21
Manufacturing Production MoM MAR   [GB] 1.30 1.50 10/05/21 12/05/21

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
6.64% GS 2035 15 Y 10000 100.44 - 100.48 07/05/21 15:15 100.47 10000 Price 03/05/21 07/05/21 10/05/21
6.94% APSDL 2037 16 Y 1000 6.82% - 6.90% 11/05/21 15:17 6.94% 1000 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
5.63% GS 2026 5 Y 11000 100.38 - 100.42 07/05/21 15:15 100.36 11000 Price 03/05/21 07/05/21 10/05/21
6.88% MHSDL 2033 12 Y 1500 6.88% 11/05/21 15:16 6.88% 1500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
6.79% HRSDL 2031 10 Y 1000 6.80% 11/05/21 15:13 6.79% 1000 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
91 DTB 12/08/2021 91 D 15000 3.34% - 3.37% 21/05/21 16:55 3.3692% 15000 Yield 07/05/21 12/05/21 13/05/21
6.90% MZSDL 2033 12 Y 150 6.82% - 6.90% 11/05/21 15:18 6.90% 150 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
5.85% GS 2030 10 Y 14000 98.62 - 98.65 15/05/21 09:38 - Price 10/05/21 14/05/21 17/05/21
182 DTB 11/11/2021 182 D 15000 3.51% - 3.53% 21/05/21 16:56 3.5701% 15000 Yield 07/05/21 12/05/21 13/05/21
6.83% WBSDL 2031 10 Y 2000 6.78% - 6.80% 11/05/21 15:23 6.83% 2000 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
6.76% GS 2061 40 Y 9000 6.83% - 6.86% 15/05/21 09:39 6.8740% 9117 Yield 10/05/21 14/05/21 17/05/21
6.49% TNSDL 2050 30 Y 1500 6.82% - 6.90% 11/05/21 15:26 6.9297% 1500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
6.67% GS 2050 30 Y 7000 6.82% - 6.84% 07/05/21 15:17 6.8203% 7000 Yield 03/05/21 07/05/21 10/05/21
6.63% TNSDL 2055 35 Y 1500 - 11/05/21 15:14 6.9301% 1500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
4.26% GS 2023 2 Y 3000 4.20% - 4.25% 15/05/21 09:39 4.26% 3087 Yield 10/05/21 14/05/21 17/05/21
6.94% APSDL 2038 17 Y 1000 6.82% - 6.90% 11/05/21 15:22 6.94% 1000 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
6.84% MHSDL 2032 11 Y 1500 6.82% 11/05/21 15:20 6.84% 1500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
6.77% RJSDL 2031 10 Y 500 6.78% 11/05/21 15:25 6.77% 500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21
364 DTB 12/05/2022 364 D 6000 3.70% - 3.72% 21/05/21 16:56 3.72% 6000 Yield 07/05/21 12/05/21 13/05/21
6.13% RJSDL 2026 5 Y 500 6.27% - 6.30% 11/05/21 15:24 6.13% 500 Yield 06/05/21 11/05/21 12/05/21

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