• 10 JUN
  • Knight Snippet
  • 10/06/2021

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,
This is your host Parthesh Shah, Co-Founder of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.
Here is all what you need to know before going into trade for 10-June-2021.

International Market:
- US CPI for May is set to be released Thursday, which is today
- Even if the CPI numbers come a little higher than the market expectations, participants believe FED is not going to act soon and hence, the softness in US yields continued yesterday as well
- US 10-year closed 3 bps down at 1.50% and 30-year closed 4 bps down at 2.17% on Wednesday

Watch Out:
- US CPI and ECB meeting today

Crude Oil Market:
- Crude is trading at $71.71/bbl
- Crude short term range: $69-73

Knight Research:
Bullish on crude with $80/bbl target

Currency Market:
- Dollar index (DXY) is at: 90.16
- DXY today's range: 89.54 - 90.44
- USDCNY or Chinese yuan is at 6.38
- USDINR with a low of 72.88, closed at 72.97
- Daily higher lows are formed, but USDINR has not managed to close above 73.00
- USDINR range: 72.75 - 73.15

Knight Research:
Don't take any speculative positions today for USDINR and DXY as the US CPI numbers are due today

Domestic Market:
- US yields plunge is continued ahead of US inflation data and that has kept the positivity going in Indian markets as well
- Many of the market participants have taken positions for 6.64 GS 2035 purely on the expectation of Rs. 30,000 Cr G-Sec G-SAP 1.0
- G-SAP 1.0 third tranche details are expected to be out today

 - 5.63 GS 2026 closed at 5.52% Vs 5.51% the previous trading day;  
- 5.85 GS 2030 closed at 6.01% Vs 6.00% the previous trading day;  

Note:
As on 31 May, the outstanding for 5.85 GS 2030 is Rs. 1.05 Lakh Cr
There is Rs. 14,000 Cr auction on Friday, which will take the tally to Rs. 1.19 Lakh Cr which is the informal cap
- We expect the new benchmark to be introduced by end-of June

09-June-2021 T-Bill auction analysis:
91-day: 3.40%
182-day:3.64%
364-day: 3.76%

Interesting:
- 364-day yields are now getting anchored towards to 4.00% (repo rate) and we expect 364-day near repo in the next quarter

Knight Research:
5.85 GS 2030 range: 6.00% - 6.05% range
- No more buying now, as G-SAP announcements are due today
- 6.64 GS 2035 may see some selling if it is not included in the G-SAP 1.0 third tranche

That's it for today.  You were listening to Knight Snippets with Parthesh Shah from Knight Fintech.

See you tomorrow with a new episode of Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
Inflation Rate MoM MAY   [GB] 0.60 0.30 14/06/21 16/06/21
Inflation Rate YoY MAY   [CN] -0.20 -0.30 04/06/21 09/06/21
Inflation Rate YoY MAY   [GB] 1.50 0.70 14/06/21 16/06/21
Jobless Claims 4 Week Average   [US] 428.0 458.5 07/06/21 10/06/21
Stock Investment by Foreigners   [JP] -181.3 -233.2 07/06/21 10/06/21
Balance Of Trade MAY   [SG] 5,755 5,414 14/06/21 17/06/21
Balance Of Trade APR   [GB] -935.0 -1,966.0 07/06/21 11/06/21
Core PPI MoM MAY   [US] 0.0000 122.0000 14/06/21 15/06/21
Foreign Bond Investment   [JP] 410.6 664.8 14/06/21 17/06/21
Foreign Bond Investment APR   [US] 118,900 -65,500 14/06/21 16/06/21
Balance Of Trade MAY   [JP] 255.3 662.2 14/06/21 16/06/21
Industrial Production YoY MAY   [CN] 9.80 14.10 14/06/21 16/06/21
EXPORT MAY   [IN] 32,210 30,630 14/06/21 15/06/21
Balance Of Trade MAY   [IN] -6,320 -15,100 14/06/21 15/06/21
FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT (YTD) YoY MAY   [CN] 19.9 25.6 14/06/21 16/06/21
Inflation Rate MoM MAY   [BR] 0.31 0.93 04/06/21 09/06/21
Continuing Jobless Claims   [US] 3,771 3,602 07/06/21 10/06/21
Inflation Rate MoM MAY   [US] 0.80 0.60 07/06/21 10/06/21
Import Price YoY MAY   [KR] 109.2 109.8 07/06/21 11/06/21
WPI Manufacturing YoY MAY   [IN] 12.9 13.1 11/06/21 14/06/21
Stock Investment by Foreigners   [JP] -33.2 94.7 14/06/21 17/06/21
EXPORT YoY MAY   [JP] 7,181 7,378 14/06/21 16/06/21
FDI (YTD) YoY MAY   [CN] 753.0 590.4 11/06/21 14/06/21
Core PPI YoY MAY   [US] 122.8 122.0 14/06/21 15/06/21
Industrial Production YoY MAY   [CN] 9.80 14.10 14/06/21 16/06/21
Wholesale Inventories MoM APR   [US] 0.80 0.10 04/06/21 09/06/21
Inflation Rate YoY MAY   [SA] 5.30 4.90 14/06/21 15/06/21
Inflation Rate YoY MAY   [BR] 6.76 6.10 04/06/21 09/06/21
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1   [KR] 1.70 1.10 04/06/21 09/06/21
Interest Rate Decision   [BR] 4.25 3.50 14/06/21 17/06/21
WPI Manufacturing YoY MAY   [IN] 12.9 13.1 11/06/21 14/06/21
Foreign Bond Investment   [JP] -1,090 551 07/06/21 10/06/21
Core Inflation Rate YoY MAY   [US] 3.00 1.60 07/06/21 10/06/21
GDP MoM APR   [GB] 2.10 2.10 07/06/21 11/06/21
PPI YoY MAY   [JP] 3.60 1.00 07/06/21 09/06/21
Unemployment Rate MAY   [AU] 5.10 5.50 14/06/21 17/06/21
Inflation Rate YoY MAY   [CN] 1.30 0.90 04/06/21 09/06/21
PPI Input YoY MAY   [GB] 9.90 10.60 14/06/21 16/06/21
PPI MoM May   [JP] 103.0 102.3 09/06/21 09/06/21
Industrial Production MoM APR   [JP] 2.90 1.70 11/06/21 14/06/21
Capacity Utilization MoM APR   [JP] 99.3 98.2 11/06/21 14/06/21
Retail Sales MoM MAY   [US] 0.0000 10.7000 14/06/21 15/06/21
Inflation Rate YoY MAY   [IN] 4.29 5.20 11/06/21 14/06/21
PPI Output MoM MAY   [GB] 111.6 111.1 14/06/21 16/06/21
Employment Change MAY   [AU] 115,200 -30,700 14/06/21 17/06/21
Housing Price Index QoQ Q1   [AU] 3.00 0.80 14/06/21 15/06/21
Core Inflation Rate MoM MAY   [US] 273.7 271.2 07/06/21 10/06/21
Core Inflation Rate YoY MAY   [GB] 1.30 1.10 14/06/21 16/06/21
Business Confidence JUN   [BR] 58.5 53.7 11/06/21 14/06/21
Import YoY MAY   [JP] 6,926 6,714 14/06/21 16/06/21
Initial Jobless Claims   [US] 412.0 375.0 14/06/21 17/06/21
Employment Change MAR   [GB] 84.0 -73.0 14/06/21 15/06/21
Housing Price Index YoY MAY   [CN] 4.90 4.80 14/06/21 17/06/21
PPI MoM May   [RU] 227.2 221.5 14/06/21 17/06/21
Unemployment Rate MAY   [CN] 5.10 5.30 14/06/21 16/06/21
Unemployment Rate APR   [GB] 4.80 4.90 14/06/21 15/06/21
Unemployment Rate Q1   [SG] 2.90 3.30 14/06/21 15/06/21
GDP Growth Rate YoY   [KR] 1.90 -1.10 04/06/21 09/06/21
Outstanding Loan Growth YoY MAY   [CN] 12.3 12.6 04/06/21 10/06/21
PPI YoY MAY   [CN] 9.00 6.80 04/06/21 09/06/21
Industrial Production YoY APR   [JP] 15.8 3.4 11/06/21 14/06/21
PPI Output YoY MAY   [GB] 3.90 2.30 14/06/21 16/06/21
WPI Inflation YoY MAY   [IN] 12.5 13.1 11/06/21 14/06/21
PPI MoM May   [RU] 227.2 221.5 14/06/21 17/06/21
Retail Sales YoY MAY   [US] 51.2 29.0 14/06/21 15/06/21
Unemployment Rate MAY   [KR] 3.80 3.70 04/06/21 09/06/21
Housing Price Index YoY Q1   [AU] 3.00 0.80 14/06/21 15/06/21
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1   [RU] -1.00 -1.80 14/06/21 15/06/21
Inflation Rate YoY MAY   [US] 4.20 2.60 07/06/21 10/06/21
Export Price YoY MAY   [KR] 104.0 101.8 07/06/21 11/06/21
IMPORT MAY   [IN] 38,530 39,598 14/06/21 15/06/21
Manufacturing Production YoY MAY   [US] 23.0 3.2 14/06/21 15/06/21
Industrial Production YoY MAY   [US] 16.5 1.0 14/06/21 15/06/21

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
91 DTB 16/09/2021 91 DTB 15000 3.42% - 3.44% 16/06/21 14:58 3.4692% 15000 Yield 11/06/21 16/06/21 17/06/21
6.81% KLSDL 2031 10 Y 1000 6.82% - 6.84% 15/06/21 15:21 6.81% 1000 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21
6.83% MHSDL 2032 11 Y 1000 6.85% - 6.88% 15/06/21 15:19 6.83% 1500 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21
6.76% GS 2061 40 Y 9000 6.96% - 6.97% 11/06/21 16:47 6.9625% 9000 Yield 07/06/21 11/06/21 14/06/21
182 DTB 09/12/2021 182 D 15000 3.62% - 3.67% 09/06/21 14:56 3.6399% 15000 Yield 04/06/21 09/06/21 10/06/21
6.96% TNSDL 2056 35 Y 1000 7.05% - 7.10% 15/06/21 15:23 7.0289% 1000 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21
7.03% TSSDL 2051 30 Y 3000 7.05% - 7.10% 15/06/21 15:26 7.03% 3000 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21
5.85% GS 2030 10 Y 14000 98.74 - 98.77 11/06/21 16:51 98.97 9975 Price 07/06/21 11/06/21 14/06/21
6.80% MHSDL 2031 10 Y 1000 6.82% - 6.84% 15/06/21 15:24 6.80% 1500 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21
6.84% RJSDL 2031 10 Y 750 6.82% - 6.84% 15/06/21 15:18 6.84% 750 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21
4.26% GS 2023 2 Y 3000 4.18% 11/06/21 16:54 4.1929 3750 Yield 07/06/21 11/06/21 14/06/21
6.81% PNSDL 2031 10 Y 1500 6.82% - 6.84% 15/06/21 15:16 6.8209% 1500 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21
182 DTB 16/12/2021 182 D 15000 3.66% - 3.68% 16/06/21 14:59 3.6969% 15000 Yield 11/06/21 16/06/21 17/06/21
364 DTB 09/06/2022 364 D 6000 3.73% - 3.75% 09/06/21 14:55 3.7595% 6000 Yield 04/06/21 09/06/21 10/06/21
6.92% HRSDL 2036 15 Y 1000 6.90% - 6.92% 15/06/21 15:08 6.92% 1000 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21
6.78% GASDL 2031 10 Y 100 6.82% - 6.84% 15/06/21 15:10 6.78% 100 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21
91 DTB 09/09/2021 91 D 15000 3.40% - 3.42% 09/06/21 14:57 3.4035% 15000 Yield 04/06/21 09/06/21 10/06/21
5.65% TNSDL 2025 4 Y 1000 5.50% - 5.52% 15/06/21 15:15 5.65% 1000 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21
364 DTB 16/06/2022 364 D 6000 3.74% - 3.76% 16/06/21 15:00 3.8526% 6000 Yield 11/06/21 16/06/21 17/06/21
6.05% RJSDL 2026 5 Y 750 6.12% - 6.14% 15/06/21 15:07 6.05% 750 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21
6.75% GJSDL 2031 10 Y 1000 6.82% - 6.84% 15/06/21 15:06 6.75% 1000 Yield 10/06/21 15/06/21 16/06/21

Credit Research: Exposures and Next IP Dates

REC Ltd.

Non Convertible Debenture

Housing Development Finance Corpn. Ltd.

Debenture

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