14 SEP
Knight Snippet

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,
This is your host Parthesh Shah, Co-Founder of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.
Here is what you need to know before going into trade for 14-Sep-2021

International Market:
- All eyes are on today's US CPI numbers
- US 10-year closed at 1.33% and 30-year at 1.91% Monday
- Today's CPI and next week's FED meeting will throw a light on asset purchase tapering talks

Crude Oil Market:
- Crude is trading at $73.69/bbl
- Crude Short Term Range: $71-75

Currency Market:
- Dollar index (DXY) is at: 92.62
- DXY today's range: 92.52 - 92.81
- USDCNY or Chinese yuan is at 6.45
- USDINR with a high of 73.73, closed at 73.68
Support: 73.55
Resistance: 73.95
- 73.70 will be the anchor point

Watch-out:
- US CPI numbers today late evening

Domestic Market:
- Market sentiment was spoiled when the following news broke
- As we know, centre was supposed to pay Rs. 1.59 Lakh Cr for GST shortfall.
- Centre has already paid Rs. 75,000 Cr in July itself without any extra borrowing.
- Now, the emerging news are: Centre may borrow the entire remaining amount of Rs. 84,000 Cr in H2-FY22 (Oct-March)
- Initially, the expectation was centre may borrow partial amount as GST collections have improved a lot
- 5.63 GS 2026 closed at 5.63% Vs 5.61% the previous trading day;
- 6.64 GS 2035 closed at 6.72% Vs 6.71% the previous trading day;
- Now, after market hours yesterday, CPI numbers came @ 5.30% Vs. last month's 5.59%
- Hence, CPI has cooled-off and market will take this as a positive sign, giving more room to RBI for accommodative stance

Trading Strategy:
- 6.10 GS 2031 is now at 6.19%
- No opportunity for position holding

Trading Range:
6.10 GS 2031 range: 6.17% - 6.21%

That's it for today.

See you tomorrow with a new episode of Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
Exports YoY AUG   [JP] 7,356 6,606 13/09/21 16/09/21
Balance Of Trade AUG   [JP] 439.4 -635.4 13/09/21 16/09/21
Housing Starts AUG   [US] 1,650 1,534 18/09/21 21/09/21
Stock Investment by Foreigners   [JP] 422.8 128.7 13/09/21 16/09/21
Foreign Bond Investment JUL   [US] 10,900 10,200 13/09/21 17/09/21
Industrial Production YoY AUG   [CN] 6.40 5.30 10/09/21 15/09/21
WPI Inflation YoY AUG   [IN] 11.2 10.5 09/09/21 14/09/21
Foreign Exchange Reserves   [IN] 642,453 616,458 13/09/21 17/09/21
Inflation Rate YoY AUG   [IN] 6.26 5.60 09/09/21 13/09/21
Industrial Production YoY JUL   [JP] 23.0 11.6 09/09/21 14/09/21
Retail Sales MoM AUG   [GB] -2.80 -0.90 13/09/21 17/09/21
Retail Price Index YoY AUG   [GB] 3.80 4.80 10/09/21 15/09/21
Industrial Production MoM JUL   [JP] 6.50 -1.75 09/09/21 14/09/21
Export Price YoY AUG   [US] 142.1 142.6 10/09/21 15/09/21
Import Price YoY AUG   [US] 134.7 134.3 10/09/21 15/09/21
Foreign Bond Investment   [JP] 1,043 1,761 13/09/21 16/09/21
House Price Index YoY Q2   [AU] 3.00 5.40 09/09/21 14/09/21
Import Price YoY AUG   [KR] 115.9 119.4 09/09/21 14/09/21
Unemployment Rate AUG   [KR] 3.30 2.80 10/09/21 15/09/21
WPI Manufacturing YoY AUG   [IN] 11.2 0.0 09/09/21 14/09/21
Passenger Vehicles sales   [IN] 264,442 243,337 09/09/21 13/09/21
FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT (YTD) YoY AUG   [CN] 10.3 8.9 10/09/21 15/09/21
Retail Sales YoY AUG   [CN] 8.50 2.00 10/09/21 15/09/21
WPI Food YoY AUG   [IN] 11.2 10.5 09/09/21 14/09/21
Unemployment Rate AUG   [CN] 5.10 5.10 10/09/21 15/09/21
Exports Price MoM AUG   [US] 142.1 142.6 10/09/21 15/09/21
WPI FUEL YOY AUG   [IN] 11.2 10.5 09/09/21 14/09/21
Retail Sales YoY AUG   [GB] 1.90 0.00 13/09/21 17/09/21
Import Price MoM AUG   [US] 134.7 134.3 10/09/21 15/09/21
FDI (YTD) YoY AUG   [CN] 6.50 -1.50 09/09/21 14/09/21
Current Account Q2   [US] -175,079 -195,739 18/09/21 21/09/21
Exports YoY AUG   [KR] 107.4 112.2 09/09/21 13/09/21
Import YoY AUG   [JP] 6,917 7,241 13/09/21 16/09/21
Housing Price Index QoQ Q2   [AU] 3.00 3.40 09/09/21 14/09/21
Housing Price Index YoY AUG   [CN] 4.60 4.20 10/09/21 15/09/21
Consumer Inflation Expectation AUG   [US] 4.80 4.80 09/09/21 13/09/21
Retail Price Index MoM AUG   [GB] 3.80 4.80 10/09/21 15/09/21

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
6.98% APSDL 2036 15 Y 1000 6.98% - 7.01% 14/09/21 15:56 6.98% 1000 Yield 15/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
6.91% MHSDL 2033 12 Y 2000 6.90% - 6.93% 14/09/21 15:58 6.91% 2000 Yield 09/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
SKSDL 2031 10 Y 251 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/09/21 21/09/21 22/09/21
6.87% ASSDL 2031 10 Y 600 6.84% - 6.88% 14/09/21 15:54 6.87% 600 Yield 09/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
364 DTB 15/09/2022 364 D 4000 3.56% - 3.58% 15/09/21 14:56 3.58% 4000 Yield 09/09/21 15/09/21 16/09/21
6.76% GS 2061 40 Y 9000 6.92% - 6.94% 17/09/21 16:30 6.9297% 9000 Yield 13/09/21 17/09/21 20/09/21
6.87% UPSDL 2031 10 Y 2500 6.84% - 6.88% 14/09/21 15:59 6.87% 2500 Yield 09/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
6.85% MGSDL 2031 10 Y 2000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/09/21 21/09/21 22/09/21
6.10% GS 2031 10 Y 14000 99.33 - 99.37 17/09/21 16:28 99.40 14000 Yield 13/09/21 17/09/21 20/09/21
TNSDL 2031 10 Y 1000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/09/21 21/09/21 22/09/21
6.85% GASDL 2031 10 Y 100 6.84% - 6.88% 14/09/21 16:01 6.85% 100 Yield 09/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
6.87% JHSDL 2031 10 Y 500 6.84% - 6.88% 14/09/21 16:00 6.87% 500 Yield 09/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
NGSDL 2031 10 Y 150 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/09/21 21/09/21 22/09/21
6.87% MNSDL 2031 10 Y 147 6.84% - 6.88% 14/09/21 15:55 6.87% 147 Yield 09/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
RJSDL 2036 15 Y 500 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/09/21 21/09/21 22/09/21
RJSDL 2031 10 Y 1000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/09/21 21/09/21 22/09/21
6.78% MHSDL 2031 10 Y 2500 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/09/21 21/09/21 22/09/21
6.53% CGSDL 2028 7 Y 1000 6.53%- 6.55% 14/09/21 15:48 6.53% 1000 Yield 09/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
91 DTB 16/12/2021 91 D 9000 3.29% - 3.30% 15/09/21 14:55 3.3044% 9000 Yield 09/09/21 15/09/21 16/09/21
4.26% GS 2023 2 Y 3000 100.10 - 100.15 17/09/21 16:27 100.30 3000 Price 13/09/21 17/09/21 20/09/21
6.89% PNSDL 2031 10 Y 1000 6.84% - 6.88% 14/09/21 15:39 6.8755% 1000 Yield 09/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
6.91% MHSDL 2034 13 Y 2000 6.90% - 6.93% 14/09/21 15:42 6.91% 2000 Yield 09/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
6.98% WBSDL 2036 15 Y 1000 6.98% - 7.01% 14/09/21 15:43 6.98% 1000 Yield 09/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
6.85% MPSDL 2031 10 Y 2000 6.84% - 6.88% 14/09/21 15:46 6.85% 2000 Yield 09/09/21 14/09/21 15/09/21
KLSDL 2035 14 Y 500 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/09/21 21/09/21 22/09/21
182 DTB 17/03/2022 182 D 4000 3.40% - 3.42% 15/09/21 14:57 3.3944% 4000 Yield 09/09/21 15/09/21 16/09/21
APSDL 2035 14 Y 500 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/09/21 21/09/21 22/09/21
APSDL 2040 19 Y 500 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/09/21 21/09/21 22/09/21

Credit Research: Exposures and Next IP Dates

Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd.

Non Convertible Debenture

Indostar Capital Finance Ltd.

Non Convertible Debenture