11 OCT
Knight Snippet

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,
This is your host Parthesh Shah, from of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.
Here is what you need to know before going into trade for 11-Oct-2021

International Market:
- The much awaited Non-farm payrolls in Sep-21 rose by just 1.94 Lakhs Vs. Dow Jones estimates of 5.00 Lakhs
- The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% (seen in late 2016) and better than the expectation for 5.1%
- Even though the NFP payrolls were not so encouraging, US 10-year continued their march higher
- US 10-year closed at 1.61% and 30-year closed at 2.16% on Friday

Crude Oil Market:
- Crude is trading at $82.18/bbl
- Crude Short Term Range: $79-83

Currency Market:
- Dollar index (DXY) is at: 94.06
- DXY today's range: 93.90 - 94.39
- The relatively weaker NFP has made DXY bulls to take some bets off the table
- USDCNY or Chinese yuan is at 6.44
- USDINR with a high of 75.16, closed at 74.99
Support: 74.70
Resistance: 75.25

Watch-out:
- As our Knight Research Team had mentioned USDINR will flirt around 75.00 and that exactly happened on Friday
- USDINR closed at 74.99, just below 75.00
- As NFP data was not so strong, DXY bulls took some bets off the table, and we would see that in USDINR as well
- Expect USDINR's move towards 74.70 today

 Domestic Market:
Let's start domestic section with RBI MPC outcome:
#1: Repo: Unchanged @ 4.00%
#2: Reverse Repo: Unchanged at @ 3.35%
#3: MSF, Bank Rate: Unchanged @ 4.25%
#4: CRR: Unchanged @ 4.00%
#5: SLR: Unchanged @ 18% of NDTL
#6: Policy Stance: Accommodative with 5:1 votes
#7: Inflation: 5.20% in FY22 Vs. 5.7% projections in last Aug MPC
#8: Growth: Maintain 9.50% GDP growth outlook for FY22
#9: Liquidity:
A) No need of G-SAP now, but RBI ready to undertake G-SAP as and when warranted including OT and OMO
B) 14-day VRRR to remain main instrument under liquidity management framework
C) Das: "This process has to be gradual, calibrated and non-disruptive, while remaining supportive of the economic recovery"
- 5.63 GS 2026 closed at 5.71% Vs 5.71% the previous trading day;
- 6.10 GS 2031 closed at 6.32% Vs 6.27% the previous trading day;

Trading Strategy:
- For those who have not taken any positions yet, 6.10 2031 @ 6.32% is a good entry point
- For those waiting to average, can now average after watching today's action
- For both the cases, feel free to speak with our in-house research team

Trading Range:
6.10 GS 2031 range: 6.28% - 6.33%

That's it for today.

See you tomorrow with a new episode of Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
GDP YoY Q3   [CN] 18.3 8.1 16/10/21 18/10/21
Industrial Production YoY SEP   [CN] 6.40 5.80 16/10/21 18/10/21
FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT (YTD) YoY SEP   [CN] 10.3 9.0 16/10/21 18/10/21
GDP QoQ Q3   [CN] 0.60 1.20 16/10/21 18/10/21
Retail Sales YoY SEP   [CN] 8.50 7.00 16/10/21 18/10/21

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
6.75% GJSDL 2029 8 Y 2500 6.75% - 6.78% 12/10/21 16:22 6.75% 1054 Yield 08/10/21 12/10/21 13/10/21
4.26% GS 2023 2 Y 2000 - 08/10/21 21:35 99.81 2000 Yield 04/10/21 08/10/21 11/10/21
6.67% GS 2035 14 Y 9000 99.05 - 99.10 08/10/21 21:36 98.85 9000 Yield 04/10/21 08/10/21 11/10/21
7.03% KASDL 2032 11 Y 1000 7.03% - 7.05% 12/10/21 16:21 7.03% 100 Yield 08/10/21 12/10/21 13/10/21
7.13% APSDL 2036 15 Y 1000 7.10% - 7.13% 12/10/21 16:39 7.13% 1000 Yield 08/10/21 12/10/21 13/10/21
182 DTB 14/04/2022 182 D 3000 3.65% - 3.68% 13/10/21 15:27 3.6447% 3000 Yield 08/10/21 13/10/21 14/10/21
6.98% PNSDL 2033 12 Y 250 - 12/10/21 16:40 NA 0 Yield 12/10/21 12/10/21 12/10/21
7.00% NGSDL 2031 10 Y 89 6.97% - 7.03% 12/10/21 16:42 7.00% 89 Yield 08/10/21 12/10/21 13/10/21
6.76% GS 2061 40 Y 7000 7.14% - 7.16% 14/10/21 14:56 7.1481% 7000 Yield 08/10/21 14/10/21 18/10/21
364 DTB 13/10/2022 364 D 3000 3.89% - 3.92% 13/10/21 15:28 3.8998% 7000 Yield 08/10/21 13/10/21 14/10/21
91DTB 13/01/2022 91 D 1000 3.49% - 3.51% 13/10/21 15:29 3.3937% 10000 Yield 08/10/21 13/10/21 14/10/21
6.97% TNSDL 2031 10 Y 2000 6.97% - 7.03% 12/10/21 16:43 6.97% 2000 Yield 08/10/21 12/10/21 13/10/21
6.96% KASDL 2031 10 Y 1000 6.97% - 7.03% 12/10/21 16:44 6.96% 1000 Yield 08/10/21 12/10/21 13/10/21
6.67% GS 2050 30 Y 7000 7.06% - 7.07% 08/10/21 21:37 7.1214% 7000 Yield 04/10/21 08/10/21 11/10/21
6.97% UPSDL 2031 10 Y 2500 6.97% - 7.03% 12/10/21 16:46 6.97% 2500 Yield 08/10/21 12/10/21 13/10/21
6.84% PNSDL 2031 10 Y 750 6.97% - 7.03% 12/10/21 16:47 6.9988% 750 Yield 08/10/21 12/10/21 13/10/21
5.63% GS 2026 5 Y 6000 99.67 - 99.73 08/10/21 21:37 99.62 6000 Yield 04/10/21 08/10/21 11/10/21
6.10% GS 2031 10 Y 13000 98.31 - 98.36 14/10/21 14:55 98.32 13000 Yield 08/10/21 14/10/21 18/10/21
GOI FRB 2034 14 Y 4000 100.05 - 100.15 14/10/21 14:58 100.13 4000 Yield 08/10/21 14/10/21 18/10/21
6.98% RJSDL 2031 10 Y 1000 6.97% - 7.03% 12/10/21 16:48 6.98% 1000 Yield 08/10/21 12/10/21 13/10/21
7.14% APSDL 2041 20 Y 1000 7.15% - 7.18% 12/10/21 16:49 7.14% 1000 Yield 08/10/21 12/10/21 13/10/21
7.00% MNSDL 2031 10 Y 140 6.97% - 7.03% 12/10/21 16:51 7.00% 140 Yield 08/10/21 12/10/21 13/10/21

Credit Research: Exposures and Next IP Dates

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd.

Debenture

L&T Housing Finance Ltd.

Debenture