14 JAN
Knight Snippet

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,
This is your host Parthesh Shah, from of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.
On this auspicious day of Makarsankrant, here is what you need to know before going into trade for 14-Jan-2022.

International Market:
- US markets are seeing short covering after 7.00% CPI and recent 26 bps rise in yields in 7 trading sessions
- US 10-year yields were 4 bps down closing at 1.70%, and 30-year yields 3 bps down closing at 2.05% on Thursday

Watch-out:
- US jobless data on Friday

Crude Oil Market:
- Crude is trading at $84.30/bbl
- Crude Short Term Range: $82-85

Currency Market:
- Dollar index (DXY) is at: 94.78
- DXY today's range: 94.42 - 95.00
- There is an interesting chart pattern happening below 95.00 and will update our listeners
- It seems DXY is going for 90.00 mark (but, need to confirm the pattern)
- USDCNY or Chinese yuan is at 6.36
- USDINR closed at 73.88 with 13 paisa intra-day movement
Support: 73.75
Resistance: 74.20

Domestic Market:
Reasons for yesterday's rally:
#1: Lower than anticipated inflation print
#2: RBI intervention was expected as the new benchmark auction is today
- 5.63 GS 2026 closed at 5.87% Vs 5.93%;
- 6.10 GS 2031 closed at 6.56% Vs 6.59%;
- 6.67 GS 2035 closed at 7.01% Vs 7.05%;

OIS curve:
1-year: 4.37% Vs. 4.41%
2-year: 4.89% Vs. 4.93%
5-year: 5.58% Vs. 5.59%
- We expect the swap rates to further come down

Trading strategy:
- New 10-year benchmark auction today
- Knight Research expects new 10-year to come at 6.48%-6.50%

Strategic call:
- Knight's Strategic BUY: 5.74 GS 2026 @ 6.03%, now trading at 5.96%
- HOLD the position as we expect upside (already 7bps gain)
- Offload SDL auction stocks in secondary

Trading Range:
- 6.10 GS 2031 range: 6.54% - 6.59%
- Next support: 6.65%

That's it for today.

See you next week with a new episode of Knight Snippets. Happy Makar Sankrant!

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
WPI FUEL YOY DEC   [IN] 37.2 39.8 10/01/22 14/01/22
PPI Input YoY DEC   [GB] 8.60 9.10 17/01/22 19/01/22
CPI YoY DEC   [GB] 4.20 5.10 17/01/22 19/01/22
Foreign Bond Buying NOV   [US] -43.5 66.4 17/01/22 19/01/22
PPI Output MoM DEC   [GB] 1.50 0.90 17/01/22 19/01/22
Core CPI YoY DEC   [GB] 3.40 4.00 17/01/22 19/01/22
CPI MoM DEC   [GB] 1.10 0.70 17/01/22 19/01/22
WPI Food YoY DEC   [IN] -1.69 4.88 10/01/22 14/01/22
WPI Manufacturing YoY DEC   [IN] 12.0 11.9 10/01/22 14/01/22
WPI Inflation YoY DEC   [IN] 12.5 11.9 10/01/22 14/01/22
Current Account NOV   [ER] 18.7 18.1 17/01/22 19/01/22

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
4.56% GS 2023 2 Y 2000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/01/22 21/01/22 24/01/22
364 DTB 19/01/2023 364 D 11000 3.65% - 3.70% 19/01/22 13:46 4.4727% 11000 Yield 14/01/22 19/01/22 20/01/22
7.34% TSSDL 2033 12 Y 2000 7.30% - 7.35% 18/01/22 15:54 7.34% 2000 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
6.43% RJSDL 2026 5 Y 500 6.48% - 6.53% 18/01/22 15:56 6.43% 1000 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
6.99% GS 2051 30 Y 7000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/01/22 21/01/22 24/01/22
7.33% KASDL 2036 15 Y 2000 7.33% -7.38% 18/01/22 15:58 7.33% 2000 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
6.95% GS 2061 40 Y 7000 7.25% - 7.26% 14/01/22 16:06 7.2448% 7000 Yield 10/01/22 14/01/22 17/01/22
7.32% PNSDL 2032 11 Y 1000 7.22% - 7.26% 18/01/22 15:51 7.2379% 1000 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
182 DTB 21/07/2022 182 D 10000 4.05% - 4.09% 19/01/22 13:44 4.1242% 10000 Yield 14/01/22 19/01/22 20/01/22
7.24% BRSDL 2031 10 Y 2000 7.23% - 7.28% 18/01/22 15:49 7.24% 2000 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
GOI FRB 2034 13 Y 4000 97.38 - 97.40 14/01/22 16:06 97.85 4000 Yield 10/01/22 14/01/22 17/01/22
7.33% KASDL 2039 18 Y 1000 7.35% - 7.38% 18/01/22 16:00 7.33% 1000 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
7.24% UPSDL 2031 10 Y 3000 7.23% - 7.27% 18/01/22 16:03 7.24% 3000 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
5.27% GJSDL 2023 2 Y 1500 5.50% - 5.55% 18/01/22 16:02 5.27% 1500 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
6.67% GS 2035 15 Y 9000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/01/22 21/01/22 24/01/22
5.74% GS 2026 5 Y 6000 T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D T.B.D Yield 17/01/22 21/01/22 24/01/22
7.33% KASDL 2036 15 Y 2000 7.33% -7.38% 18/01/22 16:06 7.33% 2000 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
7.23% WBSDL 2031 10 Y 1000 7.25% - 7.30% 18/01/22 16:08 7.23% 1000 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
7.35% KASDL 2035 14 Y 2000 7.32% -7.35% 18/01/22 16:09 7.35% 2000 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
6.54% GS 2032 10 Y 13000 6.50% - 6.52% 14/01/22 16:08 6.54% 13000 Yield 10/01/22 14/01/22 17/01/22
6.91% MHSDL 2033 12 Y 2500 7.30% - 7.32% 18/01/22 15:45 7.3211% 2500 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
7.33% MPSDL 2042 20 Y 2000 7.35% - 7.38% 18/01/22 15:46 7.33% 2000 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
7.23% GASDL 2031 10 Y 100 7.30% - 7.32% 18/01/22 15:48 7.23% 100 Yield 14/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
7.23% MNSDL 2031 10 Y 59 7.22% - 7.25% 18/01/22 15:43 7.23% Yield 15/01/22 18/01/22 19/01/22
91 DTB 21/04/2022 91 D 5000 4.35% - 4.40% 19/01/22 13:45 3.6856% 5000 Yield 14/01/22 19/01/22 20/01/22

Credit Research: Exposures and Next IP Dates

Tata Capital Housing Finance Ltd.

Non Convertible Debenture

Zydus Wellness Ltd.

Debenture