21 SEP
Knight Snippet

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,

This is your host Priyancka Mahore, from of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.

Here is what you need to know before going into trade for 21-Sept-2022.

International Market

US 10 year at almost at 3.55% yesterday rates were at 3.569%, the highest levels since April 2011. US 2 year at 3.95% today FED policy outcome will come around at 11.30 pm. 75 bps rate hike is already factored in Yields .100 bps rate hike probability is increasing.

If FED hikes rate by 100 bps. then market will react negatively but comments on Future rates will decide the direction of market ,if FED halts or sounds less hawkish then market will become positive. Recession possibility increases and hence traders will move the market on fear.

If FED hikes rates by 75 bps then market will become slightly positive on less aggressive stance of FED.

Crude oil Market:

Brent Crude is at 90.92

FED rate hike will tighten monetary conditions in the U.S., which is expected to weigh on economic activity and in turn on oil demand so due to recession fears Oil prices are giving comfort.

A stronger dollar also weighs on overseas crude demand by making oil imports more expensive. Major importers India and Indonesia in particular have faced pressure on their crude consumption from a stronger dollar.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), released on Tuesday, also showed some weakness in crude demand among U.S. consumers.

Currency Side

The dollar rose in anticipation of the hike.

Dollar Index is at 109.99 at 110 level Builds pressure on other currencies but USDINR is in range bound and trading at 79.83 . Rupee has not depreciated as other currencies did due to good foreign inflow and Lower oil prices. 100 bps rate hike will lead rupee to touch at 80.

USD INR short term range is 79.40 to 80.05

Domestic Debt Side

Earlier session of the market was positive but later on Selling pressure came ahead of FED policy and yields rose.10 year yield closed at 7.29% market also reacted on OIS market 1 year OIS closed at 6.74 vs earlier closing of 6.67 and 5 year OIS was closed 10 bps higher than previous closing at 6.73 you can notice that yield curve is flattening. 5 year 7 year and 10 year are almost at similar levels.

Rate hike impact wil be more on short term securities, hence yields rose in short term and  future softening is expected due to cool down in inflation hence long term bond yields have not increased that much. can take short term positions in HTM as yields are attractive and consider this as FD investments for 4 or 5 year at 7.25 with highest safety.

SDL yields and corporate bond yields are not attractive at current levels. will meet you tomorrow with updates on FED policy.

That's it for today.

See you tomorrow with the new episode from Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
FX Reserves USD   [IN] 553.1 550.9 17/09/22 23/09/22
Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)   [SG] -8.00 -2.30 17/09/22 23/09/22
Bank Loan Growth   [IN] 15.3 15.5 17/09/22 23/09/22
Trade Balance (MoM) (Aug)   [NZ] -1,102 -1,092 17/09/22 22/09/22
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)   [CA] 1.90 0.80 17/09/22 23/09/22
PPI (YoY) (Aug)   [RU] 11.3 6.1 17/09/22 21/09/22
Services PMI (Sep)   [JP] 49.5 51.9 23/09/22 26/09/22
Imports (Aug)   [NZ] 7.38 7.77 17/09/22 22/09/22
CPI (YoY) (Aug)   [SG] 6.70 7.00 17/09/22 23/09/22
House Price Index (YoY) (Jul)   [US] 18.3 16.2 24/09/22 27/09/22
CORE CPI (YoY) (Aug)   [SG] 4.40 4.80 17/09/22 23/09/22
Wholesale Sales (MoM)   [CA] 0.20 0.60 17/09/22 23/09/22
Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)   [AU] 0.20 1.30 26/09/22 28/09/22
Exports (Aug)   [NZ] 6.27 6.68 17/09/22 22/09/22
Manufacturing PMI (Sep)   [JP] 51.5 51.0 23/09/22 26/09/22
Goods Trade Balalnce (Aug)   [US] -98.6 -98.5 26/09/22 28/09/22
Trade Balance (YoY) (Aug)   [NZ] -10,940 -11,640 17/09/22 22/09/22
Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)   [SG] 2.60 0.60 17/09/22 23/09/22
M3 Money Supply   [IN] 8.40 8.90 17/09/22 21/09/22
CPI (YoY) (Aug)   [CA] 8.10 7.60 17/09/22 20/09/22
Trade Balance   [HK] -68.5 -27.6 23/09/22 26/09/22
Service PMI (Sep)   [US] 47.3 43.7 17/09/22 23/09/22
Retail Sales (Mom) (Jul)   [CA] 2.30 1.10 17/09/22 23/09/22
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep)   [US] 95.3 97.9 24/09/22 27/09/22
GDP Monthly (YoY)   [RU] -4.90 -5.50 26/09/22 28/09/22
Federal Tax Revenue   [BR] 181.0 202.6 24/09/22 27/09/22
Unemployment Rate (Aug)   [RU] 3.90 4.10 26/09/22 28/09/22
Service PMI   [GB] 52.6 50.9 17/09/22 23/09/22
CORE CPI (YoY) (Aug)   [CA] 6.20 6.10 17/09/22 20/09/22
CORE CPI (MoM) (Aug)   [CA] 0.30 0.50 17/09/22 20/09/22
M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Aug)   [EU] 5.70 5.60 24/09/22 27/09/22
Leading Index   [JP] 100.3 99.6 26/09/22 28/09/22
CPI (MoM) (Aug)   [CA] 0.70 0.10 17/09/22 20/09/22
PPI (MoM) (Aug)   [RU] -4.10 -2.20 17/09/22 21/09/22
US Leading Index (MoM) (Aug)   [US] -0.70 -0.40 17/09/22 22/09/22
Deposit Growth   [IN] 8.80 9.50 17/09/22 23/09/22
Service PMI   [AU] 50.9 50.2 17/09/22 23/09/22
FOMC Press Conference   [US] 0.0000 0.0000 17/09/22 22/09/22
Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)   [SG] 0.80 -0.60 23/09/22 26/09/22

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
7.69% BRSDL 2032 10 1000 7.68%- 7.70% 27/09/22 14:40 7.69% 1000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.71% APSDL 2034 12 500 7.77%- 7.79% 27/09/22 14:39 7.71% 500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.13% TNSDL 2047 25 3000 91.91- 92.20 27/09/22 14:53 94.61 3000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
364 DTB 28/09/2023 364 D 5000 6.88%- 6.90% 28/09/22 13:12 6.7966% 5000 Yield 23/09/22 28/09/22 29/09/22
91 DTB 29/12/2022 91 D 9000 6.12%- 6.14% 28/09/22 13:10 6.1776% 9000 Yield 23/09/22 28/09/22 29/09/22
7.56% WBSDL 2039 17 2000 7.64%-7.66% 20/09/22 14:00 7.56% 2000 Yield 16/09/22 20/09/22 21/09/22
7.03% TNSDL 2051 29 1500 90.37- 90.57 27/09/22 14:54 93.61 1500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.38% GS 2027 5 9000 99.97- 100.02 23/09/22 14:26 99.98 9000 Yield 19/09/22 23/09/22 26/09/22
7.68% PNSDL 2042 20 2500 7.85%- 7.87% 27/09/22 14:50 7.68% 2105 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.68% UPSDL 2032 10 2500 7.70% - 7.72% 27/09/22 14:56 7.68% 2500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
91 DTB 22/12/2022 91D 9000 5.90%-95% 21/09/22 13:33 5.8800% 9000 Yield 16/09/22 21/09/22 22/09/22
7.62% MHSDL 2030 8 2000 7.68%- 7.70% 27/09/22 14:45 7.62% 2000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.69% KLSDL 2040 18 1436 7.82%- 7.84% 27/09/22 14:44 7.69% 1436 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.75% PNSDL 2042 20 500 100.20-40 20/09/22 14:04 101.94 Price 16/09/22 20/09/22 21/09/22
182 DTB 30/03/2022 182 D 7000 6.70%- 6.72% 28/09/22 13:12 6.6400% 7000 Yield 23/09/22 28/09/22 29/09/22
7.55% ASSDL 2032 10 800 7.58%-7.60% 20/09/22 13:48 7.55% 800 Yield 16/09/22 20/09/22 21/09/22
7.65% RJSDL 2032 10 1000 7.68%- 7.70% 27/09/22 14:50 7.65% 1000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.36% GS 2052 30 8000 7.50%- 7.55% 23/09/22 14:27 7.5303% 8000 Yield 19/09/22 23/09/22 26/09/22
GOI FRB 2028 6 4000 7.18%- 7.23% 23/09/22 14:29 0 0 Yield 19/09/22 23/09/22 26/09/22
7.55% BRSDL 2032 10 1000 7.57%-7.59% 20/09/22 13:51 7.55% 1000 Yield 16/09/22 20/09/22 21/09/22
7.46% MPSDL 2032 10 2000 99.15-30 20/09/22 13:53 99.38 Price 16/09/22 20/09/22 21/09/22
7.58% GASDL 2037 15 100 7.63%-7.65% 20/09/22 13:50 7.58% 100 Yield 16/09/22 20/09/22 21/09/22
7.78% MZSDL 2037 15 100 7.82%- 7.84% 27/09/22 14:48 7.78% 100 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.69% GASDL 2032 10 100 7.70%- 7.72% 27/09/22 14:41 7.69% 100 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
TNSDL 2032 10 2000 7.57%-7.59% 20/09/22 13:56 0 0 Yield 16/09/22 20/09/22 21/09/22
7.49% GJSDL 2026 4 1500 7.55%- 7.58% 27/09/22 14:42 7.49% 2000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.33% TNSDL 2052 30 1500 93.72- 93.98 27/09/22 14:55 96.61 1500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.56% WBSDL 2042 20 1000 7.68%-7.70% 20/09/22 14:01 7.56% 1000 Yield 16/09/22 20/09/22 21/09/22
7.56% TLSDL 2040 18 500 7.64%-7.66% 20/09/22 14:00 7.56% 500 Yield 16/09/22 20/09/22 21/09/22
7.58% PNSDL 2042 20 1000 98.86-88 20/09/22 14:05 100.21 Price 16/09/22 20/09/22 21/09/22
7.72% WBSDL 2038 16 2500 7.83%- 7.85% 27/09/22 14:57 7.72% 2500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.85% RJSDL 2039 15 500 99.80- 100.00 27/09/22 14:52 100.85 500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.68% WBSDL 2032 10 2000 7.71%- 7.73% 27/09/22 14:57 7.68% 2000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.60% APSDL 2028 6 500 7.62%- 7.64% 27/09/22 14:38 7.60% 500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
364 DTB 21/09/2023 364D 5000 6.70%-75% 21/09/22 13:32 6.6494% 5000 Yield 16/09/22 21/09/22 22/09/22
7.67% HRSDSL 2032 10 1500 7.71%- 7.73% 27/09/22 14:43 7.67% 1500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.64% MHSDL 2032 10 2000 7.68%- 7.70% 27/09/22 14:46 7.64% 2000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.57% JKSDL 2034 12 500 7.61%-7.63% 20/09/22 13:52 7.57% 500 Yield 16/09/22 20/09/22 21/09/22
7.71% MNSDL 2032 10 100 7.70%- 7.72% 27/09/22 14:47 7.71% 100 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.54% GS 2036 14 11000 100.46- 100.52 23/09/22 14:27 100.41 11000 Yield 19/09/22 23/09/22 26/09/22
182 DTB 23/03/2023 182D 7000 6.25%-30% 21/09/22 13:31 6.4298% 7000 Yield 16/09/22 21/09/22 22/09/22

Credit Research: Exposures and Next IP Dates

State Bank of India

Non Convertible Debenture

Sikka Ports and Terminals Ltd.

Non Convertible Debenture