22 SEP
Knight Snippet

Transcript

Good Morning Treasurers,

This is your host Priyancka Mahore, from of Knight Fintech and you are listening to Knight Snippets.

Here is what you need to know before going into trade for 22-Sept-2022.

International Market

most awaited FED policy outcome came yesterday.

FED hikes the interest rate by 75 bps. it raised rates to 3.25% from 2.5%. Hike was widely expected by market.

But FED signaled more large increases to come in new projections showing its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year.and 4.60% by 2023. That another 1.15-1.25% rate hike till this year in 2 meeting instead of 75 bps expectation.

This was a more hawkish tone by FED as expectation of rates was 4% by this year end.

US yields at 3.55% , yields surged at 11 year high levels.yesterday it had touched @3.60% with 100 bps rate hike chances. Russia - Ukrain escalating tensions will limit the yields to rise.

The US central bank's quarterly economic projections, meanwhile, showed the economy slowing to a crawl in 2022, with year-end growth at 0.2%, rising to 1.2% in 2023, well below the economy's potential. The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 3.8% this year and 4.4% in 2023. Inflation is seen slowly returning to the Fed's 2% target in 2025.

Rate cuts are not foreseen until 2024.

Crude Oil Market

After FED rate hike and more aggressive statement by FED , Crude slided below 90$ with fear of slowing demand.

Strength in the dollar, which hit a 20-year high on Thursday, has also dented overseas crude demand this year by making oil imports more expensive. 

currently crude oil is trading at 90.10$

Currency Side

Dollar Index is at 111.45, 20 year highest level.It surged as more hawkish than expected tone in FED's latest meeting.

It also took support from increased safe haven demand, on signs of a potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.also raised the threat of using nuclear force. 

As said in last podcast , Aggressive rate hike will lead Ruppe to touch at 80.

because of Hawkish tone Dollar surged and Other currency depreciated.

also Putin's call for partial mobilisation hits risk appetite in currency market.

any tensions in Russia Ukrain side will lead to sell off in Equities and hence further fall in Rupee.

USD INR is trading at 80.26.

Domestic Debt Market

Yesterday market was at Flattish mode ahead of FED meeting market was silent , could see some improvement at the end .

10 year yields closed at 7.25% , where it had touched at 7.30% ,this was due to the short covering seeing the Russia and Ukraine tensions.

after more hawkish stance of FED, Rupee is under pressure and it may reflect to our markets .

RBI will decide it's Rates on 30 th September. Looking at FED target of 4.40% this year and Rupee pressure , RBI has to act accordingly.

Global Bond Index inclusion is still pending .if it doesn't come by October ,market will loose it's patiance.

For HTM you can buy small amount as market is not factoring any negative news and giving opportunity to enter, we may postpone our buying and wait till 30th September.

That's it for today.

See you tomorrow with the new episode from Knight Snippets.

Macro Economic Events

Indicator Last Expected AsOn Next
FX Reserves USD   [IN] 553.1 550.9 17/09/22 23/09/22
Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)   [SG] -8.00 -2.30 17/09/22 23/09/22
Bank Loan Growth   [IN] 15.3 15.5 17/09/22 23/09/22
Trade Balance (MoM) (Aug)   [NZ] -1,102 -1,092 17/09/22 22/09/22
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)   [CA] 1.90 0.80 17/09/22 23/09/22
PPI (YoY) (Aug)   [RU] 11.3 6.1 17/09/22 21/09/22
Services PMI (Sep)   [JP] 49.5 51.9 23/09/22 26/09/22
Imports (Aug)   [NZ] 7.38 7.77 17/09/22 22/09/22
CPI (YoY) (Aug)   [SG] 6.70 7.00 17/09/22 23/09/22
House Price Index (YoY) (Jul)   [US] 18.3 16.2 24/09/22 27/09/22
CORE CPI (YoY) (Aug)   [SG] 4.40 4.80 17/09/22 23/09/22
Wholesale Sales (MoM)   [CA] 0.20 0.60 17/09/22 23/09/22
Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)   [AU] 0.20 1.30 26/09/22 28/09/22
Exports (Aug)   [NZ] 6.27 6.68 17/09/22 22/09/22
Manufacturing PMI (Sep)   [JP] 51.5 51.0 23/09/22 26/09/22
Goods Trade Balalnce (Aug)   [US] -98.6 -98.5 26/09/22 28/09/22
Inital Jobless Claims   [US] 208.0 218.0 27/09/22 29/09/22
Trade Balance (YoY) (Aug)   [NZ] -10,940 -11,640 17/09/22 22/09/22
Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)   [SG] 2.60 0.60 17/09/22 23/09/22
M3 Money Supply   [IN] 8.40 8.90 17/09/22 21/09/22
Trade Balance   [HK] -68.5 -27.6 23/09/22 26/09/22
Service PMI (Sep)   [US] 47.3 43.7 17/09/22 23/09/22
Retail Sales (Mom) (Jul)   [CA] 2.30 1.10 17/09/22 23/09/22
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep)   [US] 95.3 97.9 24/09/22 27/09/22
GDP Monthly (YoY)   [RU] -4.90 -5.50 26/09/22 28/09/22
Federal Tax Revenue   [BR] 181.0 202.6 24/09/22 27/09/22
Unemployment Rate (Aug)   [RU] 3.90 4.10 26/09/22 28/09/22
Service PMI   [GB] 52.6 50.9 17/09/22 23/09/22
Consumer Confidence (Sep)   [EU] -25.0 -25.8 27/09/22 29/09/22
M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Aug)   [EU] 5.70 5.60 24/09/22 27/09/22
Leading Index   [JP] 100.3 99.6 26/09/22 28/09/22
GDP (QoQ) (Q2)   [US] -0.90 -0.80 27/09/22 29/09/22
PPI (MoM) (Aug)   [RU] -4.10 -2.20 17/09/22 21/09/22
US Leading Index (MoM) (Aug)   [US] -0.70 -0.40 17/09/22 22/09/22
Deposit Growth   [IN] 8.80 9.50 17/09/22 23/09/22
Service PMI   [AU] 50.9 50.2 17/09/22 23/09/22
FOMC Press Conference   [US] 0.0000 0.0000 17/09/22 22/09/22
Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)   [SG] 0.80 -0.60 23/09/22 26/09/22

Auctions

Knight Statistical Poll vs. Actual Results
Security Name Tenure Notified Amount Expected
Cut-Off
Recommended At Actual-Cut-Off Amount Accepted Auction Type Announcement date Auction Date Settlement Date Source
7.69% BRSDL 2032 10 1000 7.68%- 7.70% 27/09/22 14:40 7.69% 1000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.71% APSDL 2034 12 500 7.77%- 7.79% 27/09/22 14:39 7.71% 500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.13% TNSDL 2047 25 3000 91.91- 92.20 27/09/22 14:53 94.61 3000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
364 DTB 28/09/2023 364 D 5000 6.88%- 6.90% 28/09/22 13:12 6.7966% 5000 Yield 23/09/22 28/09/22 29/09/22
91 DTB 29/12/2022 91 D 9000 6.12%- 6.14% 28/09/22 13:10 6.1776% 9000 Yield 23/09/22 28/09/22 29/09/22
7.03% TNSDL 2051 29 1500 90.37- 90.57 27/09/22 14:54 93.61 1500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.38% GS 2027 5 9000 99.97- 100.02 23/09/22 14:26 99.98 9000 Yield 19/09/22 23/09/22 26/09/22
7.68% PNSDL 2042 20 2500 7.85%- 7.87% 27/09/22 14:50 7.68% 2105 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.68% UPSDL 2032 10 2500 7.70% - 7.72% 27/09/22 14:56 7.68% 2500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
91 DTB 22/12/2022 91D 9000 5.90%-95% 21/09/22 13:33 5.8800% 9000 Yield 16/09/22 21/09/22 22/09/22
7.62% MHSDL 2030 8 2000 7.68%- 7.70% 27/09/22 14:45 7.62% 2000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.69% KLSDL 2040 18 1436 7.82%- 7.84% 27/09/22 14:44 7.69% 1436 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
182 DTB 30/03/2022 182 D 7000 6.70%- 6.72% 28/09/22 13:12 6.6400% 7000 Yield 23/09/22 28/09/22 29/09/22
7.65% RJSDL 2032 10 1000 7.68%- 7.70% 27/09/22 14:50 7.65% 1000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.36% GS 2052 30 8000 7.50%- 7.55% 23/09/22 14:27 7.5303% 8000 Yield 19/09/22 23/09/22 26/09/22
GOI FRB 2028 6 4000 7.18%- 7.23% 23/09/22 14:29 0 0 Yield 19/09/22 23/09/22 26/09/22
7.78% MZSDL 2037 15 100 7.82%- 7.84% 27/09/22 14:48 7.78% 100 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.69% GASDL 2032 10 100 7.70%- 7.72% 27/09/22 14:41 7.69% 100 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.49% GJSDL 2026 4 1500 7.55%- 7.58% 27/09/22 14:42 7.49% 2000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.33% TNSDL 2052 30 1500 93.72- 93.98 27/09/22 14:55 96.61 1500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.72% WBSDL 2038 16 2500 7.83%- 7.85% 27/09/22 14:57 7.72% 2500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.85% RJSDL 2039 15 500 99.80- 100.00 27/09/22 14:52 100.85 500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.68% WBSDL 2032 10 2000 7.71%- 7.73% 27/09/22 14:57 7.68% 2000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.60% APSDL 2028 6 500 7.62%- 7.64% 27/09/22 14:38 7.60% 500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
364 DTB 21/09/2023 364D 5000 6.70%-75% 21/09/22 13:32 6.6494% 5000 Yield 16/09/22 21/09/22 22/09/22
7.67% HRSDSL 2032 10 1500 7.71%- 7.73% 27/09/22 14:43 7.67% 1500 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.64% MHSDL 2032 10 2000 7.68%- 7.70% 27/09/22 14:46 7.64% 2000 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.71% MNSDL 2032 10 100 7.70%- 7.72% 27/09/22 14:47 7.71% 100 Yield 23/09/22 27/09/22 28/09/22
7.54% GS 2036 14 11000 100.46- 100.52 23/09/22 14:27 100.41 11000 Yield 19/09/22 23/09/22 26/09/22
182 DTB 23/03/2023 182D 7000 6.25%-30% 21/09/22 13:31 6.4298% 7000 Yield 16/09/22 21/09/22 22/09/22

Credit Research: Exposures and Next IP Dates

Sikka Ports and Terminals Ltd.

Non Convertible Debenture

Pipeline Infrastructure (India) Pvt. Ltd.

Non Convertible Debenture